Atlético San Luis vs Guadalajara: match statistics

Guadalajara are showing clearly stronger current form, taking 10 points from their last five matches with 3 wins and a draw, while Atlético San Luis have collected just 5 points. The visitors are also more defensively solid, conceding an average of 0.67 goals away from home compared with the 1.33 goals conceded by the hosts at home. Guadalajara also hold the edge in chance creation, averaging 1.86 xG away from home, while Atlético San Luis record 1.51 in front of their own supporters; the visitors additionally produce 6.33 shots on target per match compared with 4.67 for the hosts. Atlético San Luis have failed to win any of their three home matches and have drawn as many as 67% of them, so a draw remains a realistic outcome. However, Guadalajara are unbeaten away from home and have stronger grounds for claiming all three points. The hosts have also failed to score in 33% of their home matches, whereas the visitors have scored in every away game.

The signal for both sides to score is strengthened by their current form: Atlético San Luis had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Guadalajara recorded it in 60%. During this period, the hosts conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game, with an xG against of 1.98, which clearly supports the prospect of an away goal. Guadalajara averaged 1.8 goals across their last 5 appearances and produced a high 1.95 xG, while San Luis scored 1.4 goals. Both teams also generate a similar number of shots on target—6.67 and 6.33 per match, respectively—and their season-long average xG stands at 1.94 and 1.86. Although Guadalajara keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches, the hosts’ attacking potential and their average of 2.0 goals scored at home shift the prediction towards BTTS - Yes.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals, as both teams have gone over the 1.5-goal line in 67% of their matches so far. Atlético San Luis have averaged 1.4 goals scored in their last five matches, but conceded as many as 2.2, producing an average of 3.6 goals per game, while the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 80% of those matches. Guadalajara are in better attacking form, averaging 1.8 goals scored and an xG of 1.95 across their last five matches, while the hosts have allowed opponents an xG of 1.98. The number of chances also points to an open game: the hosts and visitors average 16 shots each, along with 6.67 and 6.33 shots on target, respectively. The Over 2.5 goals line remains more finely balanced due to Guadalajara’s stronger defense, with the team conceding just 1.0 goal per game on average in their last five matches. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the safer pick.

A draw at half-time followed by a Guadalajara win is the most likely HT/FT outcome, as the visitors have averaged 0.8 goals scored and conceded only 0.2 before the break in their last five matches, while Atlético San Luis conceded 1.0 goal during that period. The hosts were trailing at half-time in 60% of their last five games, whereas Guadalajara were either leading or level at the break in a combined 80% of those matches. After half-time, the visitors have shown greater efficiency in terms of results: they won the second half in 40% of their recent matches and have a positive second-half goal difference of +1, compared with San Luis’s neutral balance. Current form also favors the visitors, who won 60% of their last five matches, while the hosts won just 20% and conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game. Atlético have home advantage and a seasonal average of 2.0 goals scored, but Guadalajara’s high attacking quality, reflected in an xG of 1.86, gives them the edge in the final outcome.