Auda vs BFC Daugavpils: match statistics

The favorites are hosts Auda — they sit 2nd in the table and score an average of 1.5 goals per home match with 13.5 shots and 4.5 shots on target per game. In their last 5 fixtures Auda have won 4 times and scored 8 goals (1.6 per match), conceded 4 and averaged 2.4 points per game over that period. Visitors BFC Daugavpils have no away wins (0 wins, 100% losses) and concede an average of 4 goals per away match, although they score 1.5 goals on the road themselves. The gap in chance quality is clear: Auda’s home average xG is 1.63 with opponents’ xG 1.65 and 52% possession, whereas Daugavpils have xG per match 0.94, xG against 2.09 and only 31% possession, indicating home dominance in chance creation and game control. Based on this I predict an Auda win and assess probabilities as 65% for the hosts, 20% for a draw and 15% for an away victory.

The strongest signal is the away profile: BFC Daugavpils has a seasonal BTTS rate of 100%, concedes on average 4.0 goals per season while scoring 1.5, and has recorded zero clean sheets (0%), which significantly increases the likelihood of conceding. Auda at home scores 1.33 and concedes 0.67 on average, and their xG_for of 1.8 versus away xG_against of BFC 2.09 suggests the hosts should create around 1.8 expected goals against the visitors’ defense. In the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 60%: Auda averaged 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, and BFC 1.4 scored and 2.0 conceded, indicating both sides’ capacity to both score and concede in the short term. Additionally, the league has a seasonal BTTS rate of 56%, and the away side averages 8.0 shots with 3.5 on target and a high conversion of 19%, which combined with their 4.0 average goals conceded and 0% clean sheets leans toward goals from both teams. Considering these figures, I assign BTTS 80% and 'no' 20% and recommend the 'BTTS - Yes' pick as the strongest signal.

I estimate expected goals of 1.95 for Auda and 1.23 for BFC Daugavpils, totaling approximately 3.18 goals. Auda generates 1.8 xG and on average 14.33 shots (6.67 on target) per match, while Daugavpils has 0.94 xG and 8.0 shots, but concedes on average 2.09 xG against and 4.0 goals per match. The finishing efficiency differs markedly: Daugavpils converts 19% of shots versus Auda’s 9%, which explains why despite fewer attempts they average 1.5 goals (vs 1.33 for Auda). Seasonal indicators underline the offensive nature of the fixture: Daugavpils has 100% of matches over 1.5 and 100% over 2.5, Auda at home shows 67% over 1.5 and 33% over 2.5. Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (Poisson model with λ≈3.18 gives ~83% probability of ≥2 goals), Over 2.5 I rate at ~62%, and Over 3.5 at ~39%.

Auda led at half-time in 2 of 3 matches (67%) and, before the break, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.0 conceded (scoredAVGHT_home=1.0, concededAVGHT_home=0.0), while BFC averages 0.5 goals and concedes 1.5 before the break (scoredAVGHT_away=0.5, concededAVGHT_away=1.5). Auda generates more opportunities (xG 1.8 vs 0.94) and records more shots and shots on target (14.33 and 6.67 vs 8.0 and 3.5), which supports maintaining the lead after half-time. Over the full match, the home side wins 67% of games (winPercentage_home=67%) while the away side has no wins this season (winPercentage_away=0%) and concedes an average of 4.0 goals per match (seasonConcededAVG_away=4.0); therefore the half-time lead and home win scenario is the strongest. I assign 57% to 1/1 as the primary selection, reserving 10% for 1/2 and 10% for X/1 and 23% for X/2, given that the away team can score after the break (goals_scored_min_46_to_60_away=2.0, last5_AVG_2hg_overall_away=2.0).