Auda vs Tukums: match statistics

Auda has a clear advantage in control of play and quality of chances: average possession 55% versus 41% for Tukums and higher xG 1.68 vs 1.25, indicating more valuable opportunities for the home side. The hosts average 5.33 shots on target and 13.67 attempts per home match, while the visitors register only 3 on target and 11 attempts away, translating into a greater volume of goalscoring situations for Auda. In the last 5 matches Auda scored 9 goals and averages 2.0 points per game, whereas Tukums has 8 goals and only 0.8 points per game; additionally Auda conceded 7 goals in those 5 fixtures and Tukums 9, showing slightly better defensive form from the hosts. Tukums is more efficient in finishing (shot conversion 15% vs 12% for Auda) and has not had goalless matches (0% of matches without a goal), but they are yet to win away (0 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses this season), which limits their prospects. Considering the superiority in possession, shots on target and xG, alongside better recent results (2.0 vs 0.8 points per game in the last 5), I forecast a home victory, although it should be an open, goalscoring game (combined average 3.67 goals).

Both teams have a season BTTS rate of 100%, and in the last 5 matches Auda has BTTS 80% versus Tukums 100%, which is a strong indicator that both sides will find the net. This season Auda scores on average 1.2 goals and concedes 1.6 per game, while Tukums scores 1.67 and concedes 2.0, so both teams regularly both score and concede. xG data confirms this picture: Auda has xG 1.2 and allows 1.6 xG, and Tukums has xG 1.25 and allows 1.89 xG — both sides generate around 1.2 xG and concede 1.6–1.9 xG per match. No clean sheets this season (0% for both), average shots on target 4.0 (Auda) and 3.0 (Tukums) and conversion rates of 13% and 15% further increase the likelihood of an exchange of goals. Considering these specific numbers and the form — Auda in the last 5 matches 3W-1D-1L and Tukums 0W-3D-2L — I assign a 92% probability to BTTS - Yes and 8% to No.

xG estimates give 1.55 for Auda (attacking xG 1.20 vs xG conceded by Tukums 1.89 → average 1.545 ≈ 1.55) and 1.43 for Tukums (attacking xG 1.25 vs xG conceded by Auda 1.60 → 1.425 ≈ 1.43), totaling around 2.98 goals. This is supported by season metrics: both teams have 100% of matches over 1.5 goals and 100% BTTS, meaning historically their matches feature at least 2 goals. Over 2.5 occurs in 60% of Auda’s season matches and 67% of Tukums’, and Over 2.5 in the last 5 matches for both teams is 60%, yielding a moderately high probability (~62%) for >2.5 goals. Since the league averages 2.8 goals per game and our expectation is 2.98 (0.18 higher), the strongest and most reliable market is Over 1.5; Over 3.5 is less likely (seasonal 20–33%), so I recommend betting on Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X), because the home team draws in 60% of matches, the away team in 67%, and both teams have scored in 100% of games (BTTS 100%). A draw at the break is also common: Auda were level at half-time in 40% of cases, Tukums in 33%, with average first-half goals of 0.4 (Auda) versus 1.0 (Tukums), which suggests scoring draws (e.g. 1:1) in the first 45 minutes. xG is very close (1.2 vs 1.25), and shots 9.4 vs 11.0 with conversion rates of 13% vs 15% indicate balanced chances, so the high draw frequency results from offensive parity. Auda have better form over the last five matches (60% wins vs Tukums 0%) and score on average 0.8 goals after the break compared to Tukums’ 0.67, therefore alternatives are X/1 (16%) and X/2 (11%), but X/X (35%) is the strongest signal.