Augsburg vs Freiburg: match statistics

Augsburg have drawn 3 of their 4 home matches so far and have yet to lose, pointing to another closely contested game. The hosts score an average of 2 goals at home, with an xG of 1,90, while Freiburg average 1,33 goals away from home, with an xG of 1,63. However, Augsburg’s greater efficiency is offset by the visitors’ defensive record: Freiburg concede chances worth an xG of 1,29 on the road, while the hosts allow chances worth an xG of 2,00 at home. Both teams have also struggled for results over their last 5 league matches—Augsburg have not won once, while Freiburg have lost 3 games. Despite Freiburg’s higher position in the table (3rd, compared with Augsburg in 9th), the hosts’ home record and the visitors’ away form point to a draw.

Both teams score regularly: Augsburg average 3.0 goals at home, while Freiburg average 1.33 away; neither team has failed to score in the seasonal data considered. BTTS - Yes landed in 75% of Augsburg’s home matches and 67% of Freiburg’s away games, compared with 56% league-wide. The last 5 matches reinforce this trend: both teams scored in 100% of Augsburg’s games and 80% of Freiburg’s, while the teams conceded an average of 2.4 and 2.2 goals respectively over this period. Freiburg create an average of 1.63 xG away from home, and Augsburg 1.69 xG at home, indicating genuine scoring opportunities for both sides. Therefore, both teams are more likely to score, although Augsburg’s 25% home clean-sheet rate and Freiburg’s 33% away clean-sheet rate mean this pick cannot be considered a certainty.

At least 2 goals were scored in 100% of Augsburg’s home matches and 67% of Freiburg’s away matches. Both teams have a similar attacking profile: their average xG is 1.69 for the hosts and 1.63 for the visitors, while they have conceded 2.4 and 2.2 goals per game, respectively, across their last 5 matches. The case for a higher-scoring game is further supported by Over 2.5 goals landing in 80% of Augsburg’s last 5 matches and in all 5 of Freiburg’s. Despite these signals, Over 1.5 goals offers the strongest edge, as it requires just two goals and is more firmly backed by both teams’ results to date.

Augsburg led at the break in 2 of 4 home matches and in 3 of their last 5 matches overall, while Freiburg failed to lead at half-time in any of their last 5 matches. The hosts average 3.00 goals at home, compared with Freiburg’s 1.33 away; Augsburg also have the edge in shot conversion, at 19% to 8%, although the teams’ average xG figures are similar: 1.69 to 1.63. Augsburg’s average of 1.75 second-half goals at home, compared with Freiburg’s 0.33 goals in second halves away, also supports the expectation that the hosts will hold on to their lead. Caution is warranted, however, as Augsburg have won none of their last 5 matches overall and conceded an average of 2.4 goals in those games. Despite this recent dip in form, the combination of more frequent leads at the break and stronger home performances gives the 1/1 HT/FT outcome the highest single probability.