Austin vs SJ Earthquakes: match statistics

Austin are in clearly better form: they have taken 7 points from their last five matches, while SJ Earthquakes have managed just 1, losing four times. During this period, the visitors have scored only 4 goals and conceded as many as 13, whereas Austin have netted 6 times and conceded 7. At home, Austin create chances worth an average xG of 1.43, while SJ Earthquakes’ away defense allows opponents an xG of 1.66, which favors the hosts. Austin are also more solid without the ball at home, conceding an average of 1.00 goal per match and keeping a clean sheet in 40% of their appearances, compared with the visitors’ average of 1.27 goals conceded away from home. SJ Earthquakes do have a 55% away win rate and score an average of 1.82 goals on the road, but their disastrous recent run shifts the forecast in favor of the hosts.

BTTS - Yes is more likely, as both teams exceed 50% of such matches this season: Austin stands at 55%, while SJ Earthquakes are at 64%, compared with the league average of 63%. Austin scores an average of 1.73 goals, and San Jose 1.82, while the hosts concede as many as 1.73 goals per match, which favors the visitors finding the net. San Jose’s recent defensive form is particularly poor: the team has conceded 13 goals in five matches, averaging 2.6 per game, with xG against at 1.58. Austin recorded BTTS in 80% of its last five matches, while its opponent did so in 60%, although San Jose’s lower recent scoring average of 0.8 limits confidence in the selection. The hosts have a clear edge in chance creation, with an xG of 1.86 compared with San Jose’s 1.66 xG conceded, while 6.64 shots on target per match should help Austin score.

Austin averages 1.86 xG at home and records 6.64 shots on target per match, while San Jose allows an average of 1.66 xG away from home. The hosts do concede an average of 1.73 goals, and San Jose has scored 1.82 per game across the season, maintaining a realistic chance of the visitors finding the net despite their weaker recent run, during which they averaged 0.8 goals per match. In their last five matches, both teams saw at least three goals in 60% of their games, while Austin recorded both teams to score in as many as 80% of those fixtures. However, the Over 1.5 goals line has a clearer statistical edge, as Austin cleared it in 91% of their season matches, compared with 64% for San Jose. With a projected total of 3.00 goals, the most likely scenario is a match featuring at least two goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an Austin win, as San Jose were level at the break in 73% of their matches this season and in 60% of their last five games. Austin have greater attacking potential, with average xG of 1.86 compared with the visitors’ 1.24, while the hosts average 6.64 shots on target per match against San Jose’s 3.73. Current form strongly points to a second-half turnaround, as San Jose have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring just 0.8 goals and conceding as many as 2.6 per game during that run. Over the same period, Austin have scored 1.2 goals per match and collected an average of 1.4 points, compared with just 0.2 points for the visitors. After half-time, Austin average 0.91 goals, while San Jose concede 0.82, further supporting the scenario of a balanced opening and the hosts gaining the upper hand in the final stages.