Auxerre vs Nice: match statistics

I back Auxerre to win (1): the hosts have a stronger home defense — conceding 1.00 goal per game at home, xG against 1.25 and 44% clean sheets, whereas Nice concede 1.94 goals away, xG against 1.80 and only 13% clean sheets. In attack the differences are marginal: Auxerre score 1.00 goal at home with an xG of 1.30 and 3.75 shots on target, while Nice have 1.06 goals away with xG 1.12 and 3.38 shots on target, with conversion 9% versus Nice’s 11%. In the last 5 matches Auxerre have scored 8 and conceded 7 (form 1-3-1, PPG 1.2), and Nice 5 scored and 3 conceded (form 1-4-0, PPG 1.4), indicating Nice are more prone to draws. Although Auxerre failed to score in 50% of home games (which may limit the number of goals), the hosts’ defensive edge against Nice’s away vulnerability leads me to choose the home side.

Statistical analysis favors BTTS - Yes: seasonal BTTS rates are 56% for Auxerre and 63% for Nice (avg ~60%), with recent 5-game values at 80% and 60%. Both teams regularly score and concede — Auxerre 1.19 scored and 1.69 conceded, Nice 1.06 scored and 1.94 conceded — xG confirms this picture (xG for 1.33 vs 1.12, xG against 1.57 vs 1.80), meaning both sides create and allow chances. Auxerre generates noticeably more opportunities (avg 12.44 shots and 4.38 on target vs Nice 9.44 and 3.38) with conversion rates of 10% and 11%, giving realistic chances for goals from both sides. Although Nice conceded only 0.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches, this is an outlier compared to the season average of 1.94 and xG against 1.80; additionally clean sheets are only 19% and 13%, reducing the likelihood of a 0-0. Overall this yields a stronger signal for Both Teams To Score — I estimate probability 72% for 'yes' and 28% for 'no'.

The model combines both teams' xG: Auxerre has xG_for 1.33 while Nice concedes xG_against 1.80, yielding roughly 1.57 expected goals for the home side; Nice has xG_for 1.12 against Auxerre xG_against 1.57, giving the visitors about 1.35, total ~2.92 goals. Over the season Auxerre averages 1.19 scored and 1.69 conceded (total 2.88), Nice scores 1.06 and concedes 1.94 (total 3.00); both figures are slightly above the league average of 2.84. The percentage of matches over 1.5 goals is 75% for Auxerre and 81% for Nice, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I estimate ~80%). Season Over 2.5 rates are 44%/56% for home/away, but xG_total 2.92 and the share of matches with both teams scoring 56%/63% point to a moderate probability for Over 2.5 (~62%). I treat Over 3.5 as less likely: although season Over 3.5 sits at ~44% for both sides, individual games with >3 goals by one team are rare (0% and 6%), hence Over 3.5 ~35%.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). In the last 5 matches Auxerre recorded 3 draws (60%), Nice 4 draws (80%), and the percentage of half-time draws in those 5 games was 60% and 80% respectively, which strongly favors a draw at the break. Auxerre nevertheless holds a moderate advantage in chance creation: xG 1.33 versus 1.12 for Nice and 4.38 shots on target versus 3.38, and in minutes 46–60 the home side scored 5 goals versus 2 for the visitors, giving them a real opportunity to improve the result after the break. Additionally, second-half goals average 1.56 for Auxerre vs 1.44 for Nice, and the hosts earn on average 1.38 points in the second half compared to 0.75 for the visitors, so variants with a home win carry significant weight. Nice perform poorly away (an average 0.75 points and 63% defeats), making an away win the least probable final outcome; the model gives X/X 32%, 1/1 18% and X/1 16% as the three strongest scenarios.