Avellino vs Vicenza: match statistics

Vicenza come into this match in significantly better form: they have collected 8 points from their last five games, winning twice and losing just once, while Avellino have managed only 1 point. The visitors have scored 12 goals over this period, compared with the hosts’ 5, while Avellino have conceded as many as 15 goals in their last five matches. The hosts lost their only home game so far 1:2, have failed to keep a clean sheet, and their defense has allowed chances worth an average of 1.54 xG. Avellino do average 60% possession and create chances worth 1.26 xG at home, but a poor run of four defeats in their last five appearances clearly reduces their chances. Vicenza’s superior current efficiency and more stable form point towards an away win, although the draw remains a significant risk given the limited sample size of away-match data.

The “Yes” selection is supported by Avellino’s very high attacking output at home: the hosts average 3.0 goals, generate an xG of 2.50, and record 9.0 shots on target per match. Although Avellino have scored just 1.0 goal per match across their last five fixtures, they have conceded as many as 3.0, which significantly increases Vicenza’s chances of finding the net. Vicenza are in good attacking form, averaging 2.4 goals and an xG of 1.90 over their last five matches, while also allowing opponents to score 2.2 goals. BTTS has landed in 60% of Avellino’s last five matches and in all five of Vicenza’s last five games, compared with the league average of 60%. Both defenses are vulnerable, with Avellino allowing opponents an xG of 1.76 and Vicenza 1.48; therefore, a goal for each side is the most likely outcome.

Avellino’s last five matches produced an average of 4.0 goals, with the team scoring 1.0 and conceding as many as 3.0 per game. Vicenza’s matches were also open, averaging 4.6 goals; the visitors scored 2.4 goals and allowed their opponents 2.2. The Over 2.5 goals line landed in 80% of the last five matches for both teams, while Vicenza scored in each of those games. The xG figures from the last five outings point to 1.13 for Avellino and 1.90 for Vicenza, alongside a weak home defense allowing 1.76 xG. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as Avellino’s high number of goals conceded combined with Vicenza’s attacking efficiency significantly increases the probability of at least two goals.

Vicenza are showing clearly better current form: they have averaged 1.6 points over their last five matches, compared with just 0.2 for Avellino, while the hosts have lost 80% of their games. Avellino went into half-time trailing in 75% of their recent matches and scored only 0.25 goals per game before the break, compared with Vicenza’s 0.8. The visitors’ advantage should increase after the interval, as they average 1.6 goals in second halves, while Avellino concede 1.25 goals during this period and lose 75% of second halves. Although the hosts’ season data is very limited, their recent average of 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per match clearly supports the HT/FT scenario of Vicenza leading at the break and securing a full-time victory: 2/2.