Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama: match statistics

Fagiano Okayama sit 8th and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while 18th-placed Avispa Fukuoka have managed just 1 win and suffered 3 defeats over the same period. The visitors scored 10 goals in those five matches, compared with 5 for the hosts, although both teams conceded 7, so the form advantage is primarily in attack. Away from home, Fagiano average 1.58 xG, while Avispa allow opponents chances worth 1.63 xG at home, which bodes well for an away goal. Avispa have a lower attacking xG of 1.30 at home and have failed to score in 40% of their home matches, whereas Fagiano have scored in every away game. The hosts retain some hope because the visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road, but the overall data points to a Fagiano victory.

In Fagiano Okayama’s matches, both teams scored in 100% of cases, compared with 50% in Avispa Fukuoka’s matches, pointing to BTTS - Yes as the more likely scenario. Over the last 5 matches, those figures were 100% and 60%, respectively, and both teams conceded an average of 1.4 goals. Fagiano averaged 2.0 goals scored during this period, while Avispa averaged 1.0, making the home side’s scoring the greater uncertainty. However, the hosts’ chances are supported by the fact that the visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals per season and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Avispa’s 50% clean-sheet rate warrants caution, but the visitors’ xG of 1.58 suggests they, too, could score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: all of Fagiano Okayama’s matches so far have gone over this line, compared with 50% of Avispa Fukuoka’s matches. The visitors average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while the hosts average 1.25 scored and 1.0 conceded, pointing to an expected total of around 2.75 goals. Their attacking potential is also reflected in average xG figures of 1.58 for the visitors and 1.46 for the hosts. The Over 2.5 line is less certain: it has landed in 100% of Fagiano’s matches, but only 50% of Avispa’s. Meanwhile, no visitors’ matches and 25% of the hosts’ matches have featured at least 4 goals, making Over 1.5 a clearer signal than the higher lines.

A draw at half-time is the most likely start to the match: Avispa were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 games, while Fagiano did so in 3 of 5. During this period, the hosts conceded an average of just 0.2 goals before half-time, so despite the visitors averaging 1.2 goals scored in the first half, it is difficult to expect them to take an early lead. After the break, the form advantage shifts to Fagiano, who have won 4 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 win for Avispa. Across those same five games, the visitors averaged 0.8 goals scored after half-time, while the hosts conceded 1.2, increasing the chances of Fagiano prevailing after an even first half. Therefore, I rate a draw at half-time followed by an away win at full-time as the most likely scenario.