Awassa Kenema vs Mekelakeya: match statistics

Awassa Kenema sit 2nd in the table, while Mekelakeya are 13th, which gives the hosts the edge, although recent results do not provide a strong basis for a confident prediction. In their previous five matches, Awassa scored 5 goals, compared with just 2 for the visitors, highlighting the hosts’ greater attacking efficiency. Both defenses remain vulnerable: Awassa conceded 6 goals during this period, while Mekelakeya let in 7. The hosts have won just 1 of their last 5 matches and drawn two, while the visitors have recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. Awassa’s advantage in the table and goals scored points to a home win, but two recent draws mean a share of the points remains a realistic outcome.

In the last 5 matches, both teams scored in only 20% of Mekelakeya’s games, compared with 60% of Awassa Kenema’s, indicating a markedly weaker BTTS signal for the visitors. Mekelakeya scored just 2 goals during this period, an average of 0.4 per match, while the home side averaged 1.0 goal. The visitors did concede an average of 1.4 goals, which favors an Awassa Kenema goal, but their own poor scoring rate increases the risk that they will fail to find the net. Caution is warranted, as Mekelakeya’s xG was 1.33 per match, suggesting they created more chances than their goal tally indicates. The season data offers no useful benchmark here, so based on the last 5 matches, BTTS - No is more likely, meaning at least one team is expected not to score.

In their last 5 matches, Awassa Kenema averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Mekelakeya scored 0.4 and conceded 1.4. This equates to averages of 2.2 and 1.8 total goals per match, respectively, although 40% of each team's matches finished with at least 3 goals. The visitors' attacking potential, measured by an xG of 1.33, is higher than the hosts' (0.96), so their low scoring average should not be treated as a reliable indication of another poor performance. The forecast of 2.14 goals nevertheless implies around an 83% chance of fewer than 4 goals, making Under 3.5 the strongest pick. Season data has zero values and does not provide reliable confirmation of this forecast, so the assessment is based primarily on the last 5 matches.

A draw at half-time appears most likely: in their last five matches, neither team was leading at the break, and Mekelakeya failed to score in the first half in any of them. Awassa averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time, so its advantage may only emerge later. After the break, the hosts averaged 0.8 goals and won the second half in 60% of matches, while the visitors scored 0.4 goals and won it in 20% of cases. Across their last five matches, Awassa averaged 1.0 goals compared with Mekelakeya’s 0.4, which supports the X/1 scenario. However, the risk of the match remaining level is still significant, as the hosts won only one of those five matches.