Ayr United vs Partick Thistle: match statistics

Partick Thistle are the favorites: they sit 2nd with 16 wins this season versus Ayr United’s 7 wins (8th) and boast a superior goal differential 47-32 vs 34-38. In their last 5 matches Partick have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 8 and conceding 4 (average 2.0 points per game), while Ayr have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses with a 3-8 goal record (0.4 points per game). In chance creation the visitors look stronger: away they average 14 shots and 4.67 on target with xG 1.68, whereas Ayr at home average 10.79 shots, 4.14 on target and xG 1.39. Ayr fail to score in 36% of home matches and keep just 14% clean sheets, while Partick fail to score in 20% of away games and record 27% clean sheets, indicating greater efficiency for the visitors. Given the advantage in form, shots, xG and a lower share of scoreless games, I forecast an away victory.

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 56% (Ayr United) and 60% (Partick Thistle), above the league average of 48%, providing an initial signal for BTTS - Yes. In the last 5 matches both sides also record BTTS in 60% of cases; additionally Partick scored 8 goals in those 5 games (avg 1.6), while Ayr conceded 8 goals in the same period (avg 1.6), increasing the likelihood of an away goal. xG stats confirm a balance of chances: Ayr has xG_for 1.53 versus Partick xG_against 1.51, and Partick has xG_for 1.68 versus Ayr xG_against 1.02, meaning both sides generate around 1.5–1.7 xG and have a realistic chance to score. A counterpoint is Ayr’s seasonal home resilience — only 0.69 goals conceded per home match on average and 44% clean sheets — which limits BTTS certainty. Considering the strong seasonal and last-5 BTTS signal and the xG profile, I assess that the Both Teams To Score scenario is more likely.

The xG model projects a total expected goals figure of ~2.87: home xG 1.52 (1.53 attacking vs 1.51 opponent defensive), away xG 1.35 (1.68 attacking vs 1.02 opponent defensive). Seasonal stats support a tendency toward matches with at least 2 goals – Over 1.5 is 63% for Ayr United and 87% for Partick Thistle, while Over 0.5 is 81% and 93%. Hosts average 4.75 shots on target with a 14% conversion, visitors 4.67 on target with 10% conversion, and in the last 5 matches the away side scored 8 goals versus 3 for the home side, which increases the likelihood of goals from both teams. Therefore I rate Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (~82%), Over 2.5 as moderately likely (~63%), and Over 3.5 as unlikely (~27%).

Ayr United hold a clear home advantage: they have won 69% of home matches and have not lost at home (0% defeats), while Partick Thistle have a 33% away win rate and concede an average of 1.4 goals per away game. At half-time Ayr led in 44% of their home matches, scoring on average 0.88 and conceding 0.50 by the break, whereas Partick average 0.73 goals scored and 0.53 conceded at half-time; a half-time draw occurs in about 31% of matches. xG confirms the hosts’ offensive balance (1.53 xG for Ayr) versus 1.51 xG against the visitors, and in the second half Ayr concedes only 0.19 goals on average compared to 0.87 conceded by Partick, suggesting the hosts can hold their lead. On this basis I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 HT/FT scenario — 37% — as the strongest signal; alternatively X/1 receives 16% due to the 31% chance of a draw at half-time and the high likelihood of the hosts to win after the break. Scenarios with a away win are unlikely (total 12%: 1/2 2% + X/2 5% + 2/2 5%), reflecting Partick’s weaker away efficiency and Ayr’s greater ability to maintain the result.