Bahia vs Palmeiras: match statistics
Bahia vs Palmeiras: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Bahia played against Palmeiras in Serie A (Brazil). The game was played on April 5, 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Recent form
Bahia has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Palmeiras has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss, with 2.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Bahia scores 1.50 goals per game and allows 0.88. Palmeiras scores 2.11 and allows 1.00. Games in this league average 2.72 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of Bahia's games and 78% of Palmeiras's. The Over 2.5 rates are 38% and 78%, compared with league averages of 59% for BTTS and 49% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Palmeiras has the higher season xG average, 1.43 to 1.29 per game. Bahia takes 11.4 shots per game, while Palmeiras takes 12.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Bahia leads at halftime in 63% of its games and scores 0.25 goals per game after halftime. Palmeiras leads at halftime in 78% and scores 0.78 after halftime.
When the teams score
Bahia's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (6 goals). For Palmeiras, it is minutes 16-30 (5 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Serie A games average 2.72 goals. Both teams score in 59% of games, and 49% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 2 home wins, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match looks balanced — Bahia averages 1.75 goals per home game, while Palmeiras scores 1.75 on the road; Palmeiras sit top of the table (1st) with 7 wins this season versus Bahia's 5. Bahia's main advantage is control and chance creation: at home they register 54% possession, on average 13.5 shots of which 6.5 are on target, and an average xG of 1.57, while conceding only 0.5 goals per game and keeping clean sheets in 50% of matches. Palmeiras compensate with finishing and form — 19 goals this season, a shot conversion rate of 18% (versus Bahia's 13%), 4 wins in their last 5 matches and an average of 2.4 points per match over that period. The xG difference (1.57 vs 1.11) and shot volume (13.5 vs 9.5) favor Bahia in quality of chances, but Palmeiras’ higher efficiency means the game could be tight and decided by one or two moments. Considering Bahia's zero percent home loss rate and very low average concession of 0.5 goals, I give a slight edge to the hosts and back a Bahia victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal indicators strongly favor BTTS - Yes: Bahia has BTTS in 80% of matches, Palmeiras in 75%, yielding an average of 77.5% which significantly exceeds the league average of 56%. Additionally, only 20% of Bahia’s matches and 25% of Palmeiras’ matches end in a clean sheet expected, meaning both teams in the majority of fixtures concede or give the opponent a chance to score. xG analysis shows Bahia generates 1.68 xG with xG against 1.30, while Palmeiras posts 1.11 xG with xG against 1.57, suggesting both sides have opportunities to score and vulnerability to concede (Palmeiras also has a higher conversion rate at 18%). Shot metrics and form confirm this: Bahia averages 15.4 shots and 5.6 on target, Palmeiras 9.5 and 4.5, and in the last 5 matches Bahia scored 8 and conceded 5, while Palmeiras scored 7 and conceded 4. Therefore I tip BTTS - Yes (78%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Averaging the xG model and seasonal goals-per-game yields expected goals of 2.02 for Bahia and 1.48 for Palmeiras, totaling 3.50 goals. xG computed as the mean of xg_for and xg_against gives 1.63 for Bahia (1.68 and 1.57) and 1.21 for Palmeiras (1.11 and 1.30), while seasonal goals-per-game are 2.4 and 1.75 respectively; the average of these methods is taken as the baseline. Bahia averages 15.4 shots with 5.6 on target and a 16% conversion rate, Palmeiras 9.5 shots with 4.5 on target and an 18% conversion, indicating both teams’ ability to create chances. Additionally both sides show high market indicators: Over 2.5 at 80% (Bahia) and 75% (Palmeiras) and BTTS 80% and 75%, which supports a high-scoring scenario; therefore estimated probabilities are over1.5 ≈86%, over2.5 ≈68%, over3.5 ≈46% and the recommended line to back is Over 2.5 as the strongest signal from the data.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Bahia led at the break in 5 out of 5 home matches (100%), averaging 1.6 goals by half-time and conceding only 0.2, which strongly supports a home lead after 45 minutes. Over full matches Bahia averages 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded at home, while Palmeiras averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded away; hosts earn an average of 3.0 points per home match versus 1.75 points per away match for the visitors. Bahia generates more high-quality chances (xG 1.68 versus 1.11 for Palmeiras) and registers significantly more shots (15.4 vs 9.5), suggesting an offensive advantage and a higher probability of maintaining the lead. Although Palmeiras has won 4 of the last 5 matches (80%) and both teams often score in games (80% of Bahia’s matches and 75% of Palmeiras’s), the strongest signal from the data is Bahia leading at half-time and the hosts winning the match, therefore I select 1/1 (HT/FT: home/home).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Bahia | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 43% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Palmeiras is 20% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / game - Bahia · 2.4 pts / game - Palmeiras
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Palmeiras is 41% better for: goals scored per game.
1.5 goals / game - Bahia · 2.11 goals / game - Palmeiras
Bahia is 14% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.88 goals / game - Bahia · 1 goals / game - Palmeiras
Bahia scores in 100% of games (8 of 8 meczów), while Palmeiras keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 meczów).
Palmeiras scores in 100% of games (9 of 9 meczów), while Bahia keeps a clean sheet in 50% (4 of 8 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Bahia
Over / Under - Palmeiras
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Palmeiras is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.13 pts / game - Bahia · 2.56 pts / game - Palmeiras
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Bahia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 63% of games and wins 63%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Palmeiras - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 78% of games and wins 78%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 0% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +5 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 0% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | -2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Bahia
Palmeiras
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Bahia | Liga | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.38 | 2.72 | ▲ 3.11 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 59% | ▲ 78% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 49% | ▲ 78% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 22% | • 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 78% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 38% | 75% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Bahia's perspective: 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses against Palmeiras. Games average 1.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Bahia vs Palmeiras?
The Serie A match finished Bahia 1:2 Palmeiras. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Palmeiras?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Bahia won 2, Palmeiras won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Bahia score 1.50 goals per game on average and Palmeiras 2.11. The Serie A average is 2.72 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Bahia's matches and 78% of Palmeiras's.
What form are Bahia and Palmeiras in?
Over the last 5 games Bahia have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Palmeiras 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
The statistical background for Bahia vs Palmeiras — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.