Bahia vs São Paulo: match statistics
Bahia vs São Paulo: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Bahia played against São Paulo in Serie A (Brazil). The game was played on October 29, 2026. Venue: Arena Fonte Nova. Final score: 3:2.
Recent form
Bahia has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.80 points per game. São Paulo has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Bahia scores 1.41 goals per game and allows 1.25. São Paulo scores 1.16 and allows 1.13. Games in this league average 2.66 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 63% of Bahia's games and 56% of São Paulo's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 38%, compared with league averages of 59% for BTTS and 51% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Bahia has the higher season xG average, 1.55 to 1.48 per game. Bahia takes 14.3 shots per game, while São Paulo takes 13.5.
First-half and second-half trends
Bahia leads at halftime in 38% of its games and scores 0.59 goals per game after halftime. São Paulo leads at halftime in 31% and scores 0.66 after halftime.
When the teams score
Bahia's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (15 goals). For São Paulo, it is minutes 61-75 (11 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Serie A games average 2.66 goals. Both teams score in 59% of games, and 51% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 1 draw and 1 away win. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Bahia are the favorites at home: they have won 44% of their home matches, while São Paulo have won only 13% of their away games and lost 63% of them. The hosts average 1.44 goals scored and 1.06 conceded at home, whereas the visitors score just 0.75 goals per away match and concede 1.44. The quality of chances also favors Bahia: their home xG is 1.67, compared with São Paulo’s 1.32 away from home, while their average shots on target are 5.31 and 3.69, respectively. Recent results do not offer the hosts complete reassurance, however: they have won 2 of their last five matches and conceded 7 goals, while the visitors have also claimed 2 wins but conceded 6. Despite this uncertainty, the clear gap between their home and away records points to a Bahia win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest case for BTTS - No is São Paulo’s away scoring record: the visitors average 0.75 goals and have failed to score in 38% of such matches. Bahia concede an average of 0.81 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 38% of matches, increasing the risk that São Paulo will be shut out. The hosts are clearly more likely to score, averaging 1.56 goals at home, while the visitors concede 1.44 away from home and keep a clean sheet in just 6% of matches. The forecast nevertheless remains finely balanced: both teams have recorded BTTS in 56% of matches under the relevant conditions, and São Paulo have averaged 1.74 xG over their last five games. Despite the visitors’ potential, their low away scoring rate and Bahia’s solid home defense give a slight edge to the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 87% of Bahia’s home matches and 94% of São Paulo’s away games. Bahia average 1.56 goals at home, while São Paulo score just 0.75 goals away and fail to score in 38% of those matches. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 38% of their home games, further limiting the chances of a high-scoring game. Although Bahia have conceded an average of 1.4 goals across their last five matches, season-long data for both teams point to a clear lean towards Under 3.5 goals. The projected total of 2.40 goals accounts for Bahia’s recent defensive struggles but still supports the Under 3.5 goals pick.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is Bahia taking the lead at the break: they did so in 50% of their home matches, while São Paulo were trailing at half-time in 50% of their away games. The hosts score an average of 0.75 goals and concede 0.19 in the first half, compared with 0.25 scored and 0.69 conceded by the visitors. The full-match record also supports Bahia holding on to their advantage: they win 63% of their home games, while São Paulo lose 63% of their away matches; the hosts score an average of 1.56 goals, and the visitors concede 1.44. Bahia’s attacking potential is further reflected in an xG of 1.64, compared with São Paulo’s 1.50 xG conceded. Confidence in the pick is tempered by the last five matches: Bahia averaged only 0.20 goals after half-time, while São Paulo were level at the break in 80% of those games. As a result, a draw at half-time followed by a home win remains a significant alternative.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Bahia | São Paulo | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
São Paulo is 75% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / game - Bahia · 1.4 pts / game - São Paulo
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bahia is 22% better for: goals scored per game.
1.41 goals / game - Bahia · 1.16 goals / game - São Paulo
São Paulo is 11% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.25 goals / game - Bahia · 1.13 goals / game - São Paulo
Bahia scores in 84% of games (27 of 32 games), while São Paulo keeps a clean sheet in 22% (7 of 32 games).
São Paulo scores in 78% of games (25 of 32 games), while Bahia keeps a clean sheet in 28% (9 of 32 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Bahia
Over / Under - São Paulo
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Bahia is 10% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.47 pts / game - Bahia · 1.34 pts / game - São Paulo
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Bahia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 38% of games and wins 41%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
São Paulo - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 31% of games and wins 38%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (15 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (11 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Bahia
São Paulo
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Bahia | Liga | São Paulo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.66 | 2.66 | ▼ 2.28 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 59% | ▼ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 50% | 51% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 28% | 23% | • 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 84% | 75% | ▼ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 66% | 78% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Bahia's perspective: 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss against São Paulo. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 67% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Bahia vs São Paulo?
The Serie A match finished Bahia 3:2 São Paulo. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and São Paulo?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Bahia won 1, São Paulo won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Bahia vs São Paulo?
Bahia score 1.41 goals per game on average and São Paulo 1.16. The Serie A average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Bahia's matches and 56% of São Paulo's.
What form are Bahia and São Paulo in?
Over the last 5 games Bahia have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and São Paulo 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Bahia vs São Paulo?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.