Bałtyk Koszalin vs Victoria Września: match statistics

Bałtyk Koszalin has the clearer home advantage: they have not won any of their three home matches, but have averaged 0.67 goals per game, while Victoria Września have failed to score in any away fixture and have never avoided defeat on the road. The visitors have lost both of their away matches, conceding 3 goals per game, and their defense allows opponents an average xG of 1.84. Bałtyk are also defensively vulnerable, conceding an average of 2 goals at home and keeping no clean sheets, but Victoria’s finishing has been extremely poor: despite taking 12 shots per game, they have converted none of their chances. The hosts create fewer chances, with an average xG of 1.10 compared with the visitors’ 1.29, but they register more shots on target, 3 to 2, and should make better use of their opponents’ exceptionally vulnerable defense. The teams’ last five meetings have produced one win apiece, but Victoria’s 4:14 goal difference points to a greater risk of another defeat for the visitors.

The strongest signal against BTTS - Yes comes from Victoria Września, who have yet to score a goal on average per match in the season data, have not recorded a single game with a goal of their own, and have a 100% rate of matches without scoring. In their last five appearances, the visitors did average 0.8 goals, but their BTTS rate was only 40%, compared with Bałtyk’s 60%. Bałtyk concede heavily, averaging 2.67 goals per match this season and allowing opponents an xG of 2.08, giving Victoria a genuine chance to end their scoring drought. At the same time, the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches, while Victoria’s low attacking efficiency—just 2 shots on target per match on average and a 0% conversion rate—supports a scenario in which at least one team, primarily the visitors, fails to score. Although the league-wide BTTS average is a high 71%, Victoria’s specific attacking problems make BTTS - No slightly more likely.

Bałtyk concede an average of 2.67 goals at home, while Victoria concede as many as 3.00 away from home, which clearly increases the game’s scoring potential. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.14 xG, whereas Victoria’s defense allows opponents 1.84 xG; therefore, their projection stands at 1.65 goals. Victoria have yet to score in the away data and have failed to find the net in 100% of such matches, but Bałtyk’s weak defense, conceding an average of 2.08 xG, gives the visitors a realistic chance of scoring around 1.10 goals. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 67% of Bałtyk’s matches and 50% of Victoria’s fixtures, while the high league average of 3.53 goals supports the scenario of at least two goals. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the combination of two highly vulnerable defenses creates a significantly greater probability of surpassing this low line than the other thresholds.

Bałtyk Koszalin have the stronger winning potential, as Victoria are yet to score an away goal, losing 100% of their matches and conceding an average of 3.00 goals. The hosts average 1.14 xG and 4.33 shots on target per match, while the visitors, despite recording 1.29 xG, have failed to convert their chances into a single goal. Victoria were trailing at half-time in both of their away matches so far, while Bałtyk have scored an average of 0.67 goals before the break. In their last five matches, the visitors conceded as many as 2.8 goals per game and suffered four defeats, making a Bałtyk lead at the break followed by the hosts maintaining their advantage until the final whistle the most likely scenario: 1/1.