Ben Guerdane vs Monastir: match statistics

I predict a draw — Monastir sits 5th in the league and Ben Guerdane 11th, but the positional gap does not translate into a clear goals advantage. Monastir has scored 22 goals this season versus Ben Guerdane’s 15 and conceded 14 compared to the hosts’ 20 conceded, giving the visitors an offensive edge and a better defensive record across the campaign. At home Ben Guerdane produces more chances (avg. 12.33 shots and 5.67 on target with xG 1.49) than Monastir away (8.69 shots, 4 on target, xG 1.16), yet the hosts convert only 5% of attempts into goals versus 7% for the visitors and fail to score in 58% of home matches (Monastir 54%). In the last 5 matches Ben Guerdane have scored 3 and conceded 7 (form 1-1-3, averaging 0.8 points per game), while Monastir have scored 2 and conceded 2 (form 1-3-1, averaging 1.2 points per game), indicating greater result stability for the visitors. Considering the high draw rates (Ben Guerdane 42% home draws, Monastir 62% away draws), low goals-per-game averages (0.92 for the hosts and 1.31 for the visitors) and frequent clean sheets for the hosts (67%), a draw is the most probable outcome.

I project BTTS - No as the more likely outcome. Season BTTS rates are 33% for Ben Guerdane and 38% for Monastir, while the league BTTS level is only 27%, indicating both teams scoring is uncommon. Ben Guerdane records a clean sheet in 58% of matches and concedes on average 0.42 goals; Monastir has 46% clean sheets and concedes 0.69 goals, so frequently at least one side keeps a clean sheet. Offensively both teams are weak: goals per game 1.17 vs 0.62, xG 1.04 vs 1.16 and shots on target 3.58 vs 4.0, and in the last 5 matches they averaged only 0.6 and 0.4 goals; these metrics confirm low goal output. Therefore I assign 70% to 'no' and 30% to 'yes' as the most credible signal.

The xG and defensive metrics model yields 1.24 expected goals for Ben Guerdane (attack xG 1.04 vs xG conceded to Monastir 1.43 → average 1.24) and 0.96 for Monastir (attack xG 1.16 vs xG conceded to Ben Guerdane 0.75 → 0.96), totaling 2.20 goals. With lambda=2.20 the Poisson distribution gives roughly a 65% probability for Over 1.5 goals, about 38% for Over 2.5 and around 18% for Over 3.5. Seasonal rates confirm a tendency toward low scores: the home side has Over1.5 in 58% of matches and Over2.5 in only 17%, the away side 38% and 23% respectively, while the league has Over2.5 in 28% of fixtures. Ben Guerdane records 58% clean sheets at home and only 33% BTTS at home, which limits the likelihood of a high-scoring game; therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (65%), whereas Over 2.5 and 3.5 are less justified (38% and 18%).

The strongest signal is a half-time draw with a home win (X/1). Ben Guerdane led at the break in 4 matches (33%), however a half-time draw occurred in 7 matches (58%), so HT is most often X. In the second half the hosts show superiority: they win the second half in 50% of matches, score on average 0.58 goals after the break and concede only 0.17, while the visitors score 0.38 and concede 0.31, which favors a turnaround from the draw. Additionally Ben Guerdane win 50% of all matches and average 1.17 goals per game versus Monastir’s 0.62, with a higher shot conversion rate (15% vs 7%), therefore I project X/1 as the strongest scenario (36%), 1/1 as secondary (26%) and X/X as a realistic alternative (17%).