Beroe vs Ludogorets II: match statistics

Ludogorets II sit 3rd and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Beroe have managed just 0.8 points per game over the same period, suffering 3 defeats. The visitors have scored 9 goals in their last five matches and conceded only 4, whereas Beroe have scored 3 and conceded 7 during the same span. Beroe won their only home match to date 2:1, creating chances worth an average of 1.50 xG, although their defense allowed opponents 1.52 xG. Ludogorets II are yet to concede away from home and have won 100% of their matches, although their low average away xG of 0.70 increases the risk of a closely contested game. The visitors’ superior current form, finishing efficiency and more stable defense nevertheless point towards a narrow away win.

The strongest signal comes from Ludogorets II’s defense, which has yet to concede a goal in the season data and has kept a clean sheet in 100% of its matches. Beroe averaged 2.0 goals per game this season, but its recent attacking form has clearly declined to 0.6 goals per match across its last five outings. The visitors are in excellent form, scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding just 0.8 over their last five matches, so they may decide the result themselves without requiring a response from the hosts. Although Beroe has not kept a single clean sheet this season and the teams’ recent xG figures are similar—1.35 and 1.32—the greater risk lies in the hosts’ inefficiency against a solid opposition defense. Beroe’s 40% BTTS rate across its last five matches is also below the league average of 61%, making the scenario in which at least one team fails to score more likely. Therefore, the value lies with BTTS - No rather than BTTS - Yes.

Recent form more clearly supports Ludogorets II: the visitors have scored 9 goals in five matches, compared with just 3 for Beroe, although the home side have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game. At the same time, Beroe’s matches over the last five rounds produced an average of 2.0 goals, while Ludogorets II’s averaged 2.6 goals, pointing to a total closer to the 2–3 goal range than to an open, high-scoring game. Both sides’ chance-creation potential remains moderate, as their average xG over five matches stands at 1.35 for Beroe and 1.32 for the visitors. Over 3.5 goals has landed in 0% of the teams’ matches so far in the season data, making Under 3.5 the strongest-supported option, despite the very small seasonal sample.

Ludogorets II are showing clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, while Beroe have recorded only 1 win, scoring 0.6 goals and allowing opponents 1.4. The visitors were leading at the break in 60% of their last five matches and never went into half-time trailing, whereas the hosts were behind after 45 minutes in 40% of their games. In the first halves, Ludogorets II average 1.0 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, while Beroe score just 0.4, strengthening the scenario of an away lead already before half-time. After the break, the visitors still have the more favourable figures, averaging 0.8 goals compared with Beroe's 0.2, which is why the most likely HT/FT outcome is Ludogorets II leading at the break and securing the final victory.