BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava: match statistics
BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
BFC Daugavpils played FS Jelgava in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 1 August 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. FS Jelgava: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
BFC Daugavpils scores 1.21 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. FS Jelgava scores 1.00 and concedes 1.71. League average: 2.95 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: BFC Daugavpils 54%, FS Jelgava 42%. Over 2.5: BFC Daugavpils 42%, FS Jelgava 38%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
BFC Daugavpils has higher xG: 1.52 vs 1.30. BFC Daugavpils: 12.5 shots per match, FS Jelgava: 10.7.
Match halves
BFC Daugavpils: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.83. FS Jelgava: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.42.
Goals by minute
BFC Daugavpils: 46-60 (13 goals). FS Jelgava: 16-30 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.95 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 6 previous H2H matches were available: 3-2-1. Average goals 1.83, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
BFC Daugavpils has a clear advantage in defense and current form: at home they concede on average 0.77 goals per match and keep 38% clean sheets, while FS Jelgava concedes 1.73 goals on average away and has only an 18% clean sheet rate. The difference in offense over the last five matches is significant — the hosts scored 11 goals in their last 5 games and average 1.4 points per match in that period, whereas the visitors scored only 2 goals and 0.6 points per match. BFC generates more high-quality chances: on average 4.85 shots on target and xG 1.55 per home match versus 3.18 shots on target and xG 1.21 for Jelgava away, although the visitors have a slightly higher shot conversion (10% vs 8%). In the table the hosts sit higher (5th vs 7th) and have a positive home goal difference (+3) compared to the visitors’ -8 away, which further favors BFC. Based on these numbers I predict a home win; estimated probabilities are approximately 62% for BFC, 23% for a draw and 15% for a Jelgava win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have seasonal BTTS of 38% (BFC Daugavpils) and 45% (FS Jelgava), averaging about 41% which is below the league average of 55%, so BTTS outcomes occur less frequently than league-wide. In the last 5 matches there is a large divergence: Daugavpils has BTTS 60% and scored 11 goals (2.2 per game) with last5 xG for 1.85 and xG against 1.77, whereas Jelgava has 0% BTTS and scored only 2 goals in those 5 matches (0.4 per game) with last5 xG for 0.98 and last5 xG against 2.4. Additionally both teams fail to score in nearly half of their season matches (FTS 46% for the home side and 45% for the away), while clean sheet rates are low (15% and 18%), indicating many matches finish one-sided. Although the home side’s seasonal xG is slightly higher (1.37 vs 1.21), the decisive factor is Jelgava’s lack of finishing (0.4 goals per match recently), so it is more likely that at least one team will not score. Based on this I favor the No (BTTS - No) option with a 70% probability versus 30% for Yes (BTTS - Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Seasonal data show a strong trend for Over 1.5 goals: BFC Daugavpils has 69% of matches with over 1.5 goals, and FS Jelgava 73%, averaging 71%. Based on xG I expect about 1.63 goals for the home side (xG attack 1.37 vs xG conceded by visitors 1.88) and about 1.43 goals for the away side (xG attack 1.21 vs xG conceded by hosts 1.66), totaling ~3.06 goals. The last 5 matches reinforce this signal: the hosts scored 11 goals (2.2 per game) and have a recent xG of 1.85, while the visitors scored only 2 goals in their last 5 (0.4) but conceded a lot (recent xG against them 2.4), which increases chances of scoring opportunities. Additionally, both teams concede many goals over the season (hosts 30, visitors 41) and the percentage of matches with at least 1 goal is 100% and 91%, so the most certain and strongest signal is Over 1.5; I estimate Over 1.5 at 82%, Over 2.5 at 62% and Over 3.5 at 27%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I expect the away team to be leading at half-time: their leadingAtHTPercentage is 45% versus 31% for the home side, and the visitors average 0.73 goals by the break compared to 0.46 for the hosts. Nevertheless, the home team is stronger after the interval — over the season they average 0.54 second-half goals, and in the last 5 matches they scored on average 1.6 goals after the break and collected an average of 2.0 points in second halves (last5_scored_2hg_avg_overall_home = 1.6, last5_ppg_2hg_overall_home = 2.0). This means that although the away side more often hold the lead at half-time, the home team has a statistical capacity for a turnaround. Additionally, the hosts produce better offensive metrics: xG 1.37 versus 1.21 for the visitors, 11.54 shots versus 9.64 and 3.54 shots on target versus 3.18, which increases the chance of forcing a draw. For these reasons I pick HT/FT 2/X as the strongest signal (27%); realistic alternatives are a home comeback after the break (2/1 — 14%) or the visitors maintaining their lead (2/2 — 4%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| BFC Daugavpils | FS Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
BFC Daugavpils is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.2 pts / match - FS Jelgava
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
BFC Daugavpils is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
1.21 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1 goals / match - FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils is 37% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.25 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.71 goals / match - FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils scores in 71% of matches (17 of 24 matches), while FS Jelgava keeps a clean sheet in 17% (4 of 24 matches).
FS Jelgava scores in 54% of matches (13 of 24 matches), while BFC Daugavpils keeps a clean sheet in 25% (6 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — BFC Daugavpils
Over / Under — FS Jelgava
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
FS Jelgava is 10% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.38 pts / match - FS Jelgava
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
BFC Daugavpils - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
FS Jelgava - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 25%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (13 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| BFC Daugavpils | Liga | FS Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.46 | 2.95 | ▼ 2.71 |
| Both teams scored | • 54% | 55% | ▼ 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 54% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | • 25% | 24% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 54% | 76% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | • 83% | 82% | ▼ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (6): BFC Daugavpils 3 - 2 - 1 FS Jelgava. Average goals 1.83, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
The Virsliga match finished BFC Daugavpils 2:1 FS Jelgava. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between BFC Daugavpils and FS Jelgava?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches BFC Daugavpils won 3, FS Jelgava won 1 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 1.83 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
BFC Daugavpils score 1.21 goals per game on average and FS Jelgava 1.00. The Virsliga average is 2.95 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 54% of BFC Daugavpils's matches and 42% of FS Jelgava's.
What form are BFC Daugavpils and FS Jelgava in?
Over the last 5 games BFC Daugavpils have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and FS Jelgava 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.