Bilje vs Dekani: match statistics

Bilje have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals, while Dekani managed just 4 over the same period. At home, the hosts average 1.75 goals per match, whereas the visitors score only 0.67 away from home and have failed to find the net in 67% of those matches. However, Dekani are more solid defensively: they concede an average of 0.67 goals away from home, compared with Bilje's 1.75 at home, which limits the hosts' advantage. The quality of the chances created is almost identical — average xG stands at 1.53 for Bilje at home and 1.54 for Dekani away — but the hosts have been far more clinical in converting their chances into goals. I therefore predict a Bilje win, although the visitors' defense and the fact that the hosts have lost 50% of their home matches point to a closely contested game.

The strongest signal points to at least one team failing to score: Bilje kept a clean sheet in 80% of its home matches, while Dekani failed to score in 67% of its away games. The hosts also struggle for goals at times, having drawn a blank in 60% of their home matches and averaging 0.8 goals, while the visitors average 0.67 goals away from home. BTTS - Yes has not landed in any of Bilje’s home matches to date, and this has happened in 33% of Dekani’s away games. One counterpoint is Bilje’s recent form: across five matches, they averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, increasing the likelihood of both teams finding the net. Despite the hosts’ improvement, Dekani’s frequent failure to score and Bilje’s high clean-sheet rate make BTTS - No the more likely outcome. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily imply a 0-0 draw.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been breached in Bilje’s home matches or Dekani’s away matches, and their average goals scored are 0.8 and 0.67, respectively. Bilje kept a clean sheet in 80% of their home matches, limiting the visitors’ scoring prospects. However, caution is warranted: Bilje averaged 2.4 goals scored across their last 5 matches, and at least 3 goals were scored in 80% of those games. Despite this uptick in attacking form, the projected total of 2.35 goals makes the 3.5-goal line a stronger option than the lower 2.5-goal line.

Bilje led at the break in 40% of their home matches, while Dekani have not led at half-time away from home and went into the break trailing in 33% of their matches. The hosts concede an average of 0.2 goals before half-time, compared with 0.67 for the visitors, which points to an early Bilje lead. Across their last five matches, regardless of venue, Bilje scored an average of 2.4 goals, compared with Dekani’s 0.8, giving the hosts stronger credentials to win the match overall. Dekani score an average of just 0.33 goals after the break away from home, so recovering from a potential deficit could prove difficult. A half-time draw remains a significant risk, having occurred in 67% of Dekani’s away matches; overall, however, the data most strongly support Bilje leading at the break and winning after 90 minutes (1/1).