Boeung Ket vs Moi Kompong Dewa: match statistics

Boeung Ket holds a clear defensive edge at home — conceding only 0.43 goals per game and keeping 57% clean sheets, while Moi Kompong Dewa concedes 1.14 goals on the road and records 29% clean sheets. Both teams have 40 goals this season, but the visitors score 1.64 goals away with xG 1.25, whereas the hosts score 1.21 at home with xG 1.39, indicating higher efficiency for the away side (conversion 17% vs 11%). In the last 5 matches Boeung Ket has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (2.0 PPG), while Moi Kompong Dewa has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (1.4 PPG). The hosts also produce more shots and shots on target at home (11.36 shots and 3.79 SoT per game vs 9.93 and 3.43 for the visitors), which combined with superior defense gives them control of the match. Considering the lower average goals conceded (0.43 vs 1.14), higher PPG in the last 5 (2.0 vs 1.4) and higher clean sheet percentage (57% vs 29%), I predict a home win.

I select BTTS - Yes because recent indicators favor both teams scoring: in the last 5 matches Boeung Ket had BTTS in 60% of games, and Moi Kompong Dewa in 80%. Both teams scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches (avg 1.8 goals per game), with Boeung Ket conceding 1.2 on average and Moi Kompong Dewa 1.6, showing both score and concede. Seasonally Moi Kompong Dewa has BTTS at 57% versus Boeung Ket's 47%, while the league average is 56%, so seasonal rates also slightly lean toward Goal/Goal. Additionally xG and shot metrics suggest an open game: xG for attack is 1.37 for Boeung Ket and 1.25 for Moi, and xG against is 1.57 and 1.73; shots on target are 4.36 vs 3.43, and conversion rate 10% vs 17%, which increases the chance of goals from both sides. Considering 60–80% BTTS form in the last 5, seasonal 47–57% and higher xG against (approx. 1.5–1.73), the assessment is that the "Yes" scenario is clearly more likely than "No".

Average xG indicate a game inclined to goals: 1.37 xG in Boeung Ket’s attack versus 1.73 xG in Moi Kompong Dewa’s defense yields ~1.55 goals for the home side, and 1.25 xG in the visitors’ attack against 1.57 xG in the home defense gives ~1.41 goals for the away side (total ~2.96). Seasonally 60% of Boeung Ket’s matches and 86% of Moi Kompong Dewa’s matches have finished over 1.5 goals (combined average ~73%), and the league averages 3.14 goals per game, which strengthens the Over 1.5 signal. For the 2.5 line the data are more balanced: season-to-date 47% and 50% Over 2.5, but in the last 5 games the visitors have 80% Over 2.5 vs 40% for the hosts, resulting in a moderate edge for Over 2.5 (~56%). The 3.5 line shows a weaker signal — seasonally only 27–29% of matches exceed 3.5 goals, so Under 3.5 (~72%) is safer; additionally both teams average 11.5 and 9.93 shots with conversion rates of 10% vs 17%, which increases the probability of at least two goals and makes Over 1.5 the best choice.

Half-Time statistics strongly favor the visitors: Moi Kompong Dewa led at the break in 43% of their matches, while Boeung Ket led at the break in only 14%; in the last 5 fixtures the visitors scored 10 goals before half-time (2.0 per match) compared to 6 (1.2) for the hosts. For Full-Time there are also more indicators in favor of the visitors — Moi Kompong Dewa’s season scoring average is 1.64 versus Boeung Ket’s 1.13, the visitors have won 57% of matches against the hosts’ 20%, and the visitors’ shot conversion rate is 17% versus 10% for the hosts; although the hosts’ xG is 1.37 compared to 1.25 for the visitors, the visitors’ efficiency translates into better outcomes. The 31–45' period is particularly significant: the visitors scored 5 goals in that interval while the hosts conceded 6, which explains the frequent lead by the visitors at the break. While Boeung Ket can stage turnarounds in the second half (in the last 5 matches the hosts averaged 1.2 goals in the second half), Moi Kompong Dewa conceded only 0.4 goals after the break over the same 5 matches, so comebacks are possible but difficult. On this basis the most likely HT/FT scenario is the visitors leading at the break and the visitors winning at full-time; therefore I recommend selecting 2/2 as the strongest signal.