Bologna vs Lazio: match statistics

Lazio come into this fixture in clearly better recent form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 14 goals in that span, while Bologna have recorded 3 wins and 9 goals. The visitors are therefore averaging 2.8 goals per match over this period, compared with 1.8 for the hosts, highlighting a significant edge in attacking efficiency. Both teams have conceded 7 goals across their last five appearances, meaning Bologna’s defense offers no clear counterargument to such a productive opposition attack. Bologna sit higher in the table, in 3rd place compared with Lazio’s 11th, but the short-term trend favors the visitors, who have averaged 2.4 points per game over their last five league matches, compared with Bologna’s 1.8. I expect a closely contested match, with Lazio having the greater chances of securing victory.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, providing a consistent signal for goals at both ends. Bologna averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded during this period, while Lazio were even more effective, averaging 2.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Lazio produced an average of 1.58 xG, while Bologna allowed opponents 1.21 xG, giving the visitors solid grounds to score. The hosts scored 9 goals in five matches, while Lazio conceded 7, so a Bologna goal is also likely. The stronger attacking form of both teams compared with their recent defensive performances points slightly more strongly towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Bologna’s last five matches produced an average of 3.2 goals, with the team scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 per game. Lazio’s matches were even more open, averaging 4.2 goals, with 2.8 scored and 1.4 conceded per match. Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of Bologna’s last matches and as many as 80% of Lazio’s, while both teams scored in 60% of those games. Lazio also generated an average of 1.58 xG across their last five appearances, while Bologna allowed opponents 1.21 xG, strengthening the case for at least two goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5, as the projected total of 3.10 goals is clearly above this line, although the 2.5 line remains riskier.

Lazio won 80% of their last five matches and averaged 2.8 goals scored, while Bologna recorded a 60% win rate and averaged 1.8 goals. The visitors are particularly reliable before half-time: they were level at the break in 75% of those matches, did not trail in any of them, and conceded just 0.25 goals in the first half. Bologna’s attacking output was noticeably weaker after the break, averaging only 0.33 goals, whereas Lazio scored 1.25 goals per match in the second half and won the second half in 75% of cases. In addition, the second half featured at least one goal in all of Lazio’s recent matches, further supporting a scenario of a level start followed by the visitors taking control by full-time. The most likely HT/FT outcome is therefore a draw at half-time followed by a Lazio victory (X/2).