Boluspor vs Sivasspor: match statistics

Boluspor holds a clear home advantage in chance creation: on average 13.75 shots per match and 5 shots on target, translating to 1.63 goals scored and xG 1.56; Sivasspor away records 10.38 shots, 3.56 on target, 1.00 goal and xG 1.23. The home side’s percentage of matches without scoring at home is only 19% and they have a positive home goal difference (+9), while the visitors have a negative away goal difference (-2) and fail to score in 31% of away matches. Recent trends, however, favor Sivasspor: Boluspor have scored 4 and conceded 10 in their last 5 matches, winning 1 of 5 (0.8 points per match on average), whereas Sivasspor have scored 5 and conceded 5, winning 3 of 5 (1.8 points per match on average). Defensive differences are marginal — Boluspor concede 1.06 goals per home match, Sivasspor 1.13 on the road — so exploiting the possession advantage (59% vs 49%) and quality of chances will be decisive. Considering this, I slightly favor a home win due to higher xG (1.56 vs 1.23), greater shot volume and a lower percentage of matches without a goal, although the visitors’ form reduces Boluspor’s edge.

xG and goal-average analysis gives a slight edge to the Both Teams To Score scenario: Boluspor has xG_for 1.41 versus Sivasspor xG_against 1.28, and Sivasspor has xG_for 1.23 versus Boluspor xG_against 1.06, yielding average expected goals of approximately 1.34 and 1.15 for home and away. From these values the probability that Boluspor will score at least once is about 74% (lambda≈1.34), and Sivasspor about 68% (lambda≈1.15); the product of these probabilities gives an approximate BTTS ≈50% (0.74×0.68≈0.50). Seasonal BTTS rates are similar: Boluspor 47%, Sivasspor 50%, league rate 49%, but the last 5 matches for both teams show lower BTTS at 40%, which slightly reduces the “Yes” edge. Supporting signals: Boluspor averages 1.47 goals scored and concedes 0.94 on the season, but in the last 5 matches concedes 2.0 and scores 0.8; Sivasspor seasonally scores 1.0 and concedes 1.13, and in L5 scores 1.0 and concedes 1.0; additionally Boluspor records more shots on target 4.29 vs 3.56, favoring chance creation. Considering xG ≈1.34/1.15, seasonal BTTS ≈47–50% and recent form, I select BTTS - Yes with a confidence of 55% versus 45% for No as the strongest signal.

xG and form analysis suggests total expected goals around 2.50: I estimate Boluspor 1.35 (home xG 1.41 vs xG conceded to Sivasspor 1.28 → average 1.35), Sivasspor 1.15 (away xG 1.23 vs xG conceded to Boluspor 1.06 → average 1.15). A Poisson model with sum 2.50 yields ~71% probability for Over 1.5 and ~46% for Over 2.5, consistent with seasonal Over 1.5 rates: Boluspor 65% and Sivasspor 63%, with league average 2.93 goals/match. Hosts average 12.59 shots and 4.29 on target with a 12% conversion, visitors 10.38 and 3.56 on target with 10% conversion, and the combined chance of both teams scoring by xG is ~50.6% (home ≥1 ≈74.1%, away ≥1 ≈68.3%), which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. In the last 5 matches Boluspor conceded 10 goals (2.0 avg) and scored 4 (0.8), while Sivasspor conceded 5 and scored 5 (1.0/1.0), further supporting a higher goal count. Result: the strongest signal is OVER 1.5 (recommended, ~72% chance); Over 2.5 is less certain (46% Over) and Over 3.5 has low probability (~24%).

First-half statistics point to a draw at the break: Sivasspor has kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of away matches and concedes on average only 0.20 goals by half-time, while Boluspor has averaged 0.71 goals in the first half at home. In the second half the home side’s advantage is clear — Boluspor scores an average of 0.76 goals after the break and concedes only 0.35, whereas Sivasspor concedes on average 1.00 goal after half-time and has a second-half goal difference of -7, which favors a turnaround or takeover of the initiative by the hosts. Seasonal metrics confirm Boluspor’s edge: the hosts score 1.47 goals per match versus 1.00 for Sivasspor, have higher xG (1.41 vs 1.23) and more shots (12.59 vs 10.38), increasing the probability of a second-half goal. It should be noted, however, that Sivasspor is in good form over the last five matches (60% wins), so a scenario in which the visitors win after the break is not entirely ruled out. Considering the 80% rate of away clean sheets at half-time and Boluspor’s statistical superiority after the break, the strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win by full-time (X/1).