Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV: match statistics

Hamburger SV have shown clearly better form over their last five matches, collecting 10 points from 3 wins, a draw and just one defeat, while Borussia Dortmund have managed 7 points. The visitors have scored 11 goals during this period, averaging 2.2 per match, compared with Dortmund’s 7 goals, indicating greater attacking efficiency. Hamburger SV have also been slightly more solid defensively, conceding 6 goals in five appearances compared with 7 conceded by the hosts. Borussia have the advantage of home soil and sit higher in the table, in 4th place compared with their opponents’ 9th, but the available current form data favor the visitors. A closely contested match is expected, but the stronger results trend and higher number of goals scored give Hamburger SV a slight edge.

The signal for goals from both sides is clear across the last five matches: BTTS landed in 60% of Borussia Dortmund’s games and as many as 80% of Hamburger SV’s. Dortmund scored an average of 1.4 goals during this period but also conceded 1.4, while Hamburg averaged 2.2 goals per match and conceded 1.2. The hosts allowed opponents chances worth an average xG of 1.61, higher than their own xG of 1.10, which increases Hamburg’s chances of scoring. In addition, Hamburg have a run of 11 goals scored in five appearances, while Dortmund conceded 7 goals during the same period, making the scenario in which both teams score more likely.

The available season data is incomplete, so the greatest weight should be placed on the last five matches played by both teams. During this period, Borussia scored and conceded 1.4 goals per match, producing an average of 2.8 goals, while Hamburger’s matches yielded as many as 3.4 goals, based on averages of 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The Over 2.5 line landed in 60% of Dortmund’s last matches and in all 5 of HSV’s fixtures, while both teams scored in 60% and 80% of these games, respectively. Hamburg averaged 1.25 xG, while Dortmund allowed opponents 1.61 xG, strengthening the outlook for an away goal. However, the strongest signal is Over 1.5: a projected 2.80 goals and the high recent scoring intensity of both teams give this line a clear edge.

The strongest signal comes from Hamburger’s current form: they have won 60% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding just 1.2, while Borussia won 40% of their games with averages of 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The visitors have been starting matches very strongly, leading at the break in 75% of their recent outings, compared with just 20% for the hosts; additionally, Hamburger conceded only 0.25 goals per match before half-time, versus 1.0 for Borussia. The visitors’ advantage is also evident after the interval: they score an average of 1.5 goals in second halves, with a +3 goal difference, while Dortmund score only 0.6 goals. The most likely scenario in the HT/FT market is therefore Hamburger taking the lead before half-time and holding it until the final whistle: 1/1.