Botev Plovdiv vs Arda: match statistics

I back the home win (Botev Plovdiv) because their home xG of 1.73 versus Arda’s 1.24 away xG indicates superior chance creation. Botev averages 14.06 shots and 5.25 on target at home, while Arda records 9 shots and 3.63 on target away, so the hosts generate substantially more attempts and quality opportunities. In the last five matches Botev scored 6 goals and averaged 1.4 points per game (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), whereas Arda managed just 1 goal, conceded 9 and averaged 0.4 points per game (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), which clearly favors the hosts. Admittedly Arda has a higher clean sheet rate away (38% vs 19%) and better shot accuracy (13% vs 8%), but they also fail to score more often (56% of matches without a goal vs 38% for Botev) and conceded 9 goals in their last five compared to Botev’s 5, which undermines their chances. Taking this into account, I estimate Botev’s win probability at about 65%, draw 20% and an Arda win 15%.

Season and last-5 match statistics indicate a low likelihood of BTTS - Yes: Botev has 24% of matches with both teams scoring, Arda 25%, and in the last 5 fixtures both teams scored only 20%. In the league 69% of matches end with at least one team keeping a clean sheet; Botev has 47% clean sheets and Arda 38%, favoring the scenario that at least one side will not score. In the last 5 matches Botev scored 6 goals (1.2 avg) and conceded 5 (1.0), while Arda scored only 1 goal (0.2 avg) and conceded 9 (1.8), so Arda is more likely to remain goalless. In xG terms Botev produces more (season xG 1.62 and 1.46 in last 5) than Arda (season xG 1.24 and 1.38 in last 5), and with averages of 12.94 shots and 4.18 on target versus Arda’s 9.0 and 3.63, combined with Botev’s poor conversion (7% vs 13% for Arda), the expected occurrence of Goal/Goal is limited. Based on this I select No Goal as the more probable scenario.

Averaging the attack xG and opponent defense xG yields 1.49 xG for Botev Plovdiv and 1.23 xG for Arda, totaling 2.72 expected goals. With that parameter, the Poisson distribution gives roughly a 75.5% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 51% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 29% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5), making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. Both teams create chances: Botev averages 12.94 shots and 4.18 on target per match with xG_for 1.62, Arda has 9.0 shots and 3.63 on target with xG_for 1.24. Season percentages show Over 1.5 occurred in 53% of Botev’s matches and 63% of Arda’s matches, while both teams have low BTTS (24–25%), suggesting most goals may be one-sided; however, the combined chance creation still favors more than 1 goal. Additionally, shot conversion rates of 7% for Botev and 13% for Arda, and the last 5 matches form (Botev 6 goals, Arda 1 goal, Arda conceded 9 goals in last 5) reinforce the expectation of at least 2 goals.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). Botev creates more chances – xG 1.62 versus 1.24 for Arda and on average 12.94 shots vs 9.0 – but has lower finishing efficiency (7% vs 13%), which explains frequent goalless or low-scoring half-time draws (hosts were level at the break in 47% of matches, visitors in 63%). After the break Botev performs better in terms of points and results: it averages 1.47 points in second halves versus 1.00 for Arda and wins second halves in 35% vs 19%, increasing the hosts’ chance of a turnaround after half-time. Additionally, the low BTTS values (24% and 25%) and the high share of clean sheets at the break (53% for hosts, 63% for visitors) suggest few goals before half-time and a one-goal decision in the second half, hence the X/1 selection.