Brann vs Rosenborg: match statistics

Brann is the favorite due to a clear home offensive edge: the hosts score 1.57 goals per home match versus just 0.5 goals for Rosenborg away, and Brann’s home xG is 1.88 compared to 1.15 for the visitors. At home Brann averages 14.71 shots and 5 shots on target per match with an 11% conversion rate, while Rosenborg averages 10 shots and 3.17 on target with only a 5% conversion, translating into a higher number of quality chances for the hosts. Defensively both teams concede at a similar rate (Brann 1.57 goals, Rosenborg 1.5 goals per match), but Rosenborg’s higher away xG against (1.81 vs Brann’s 1.36) suggests the visitors more frequently allow dangerous situations. In the last 5 matches Rosenborg has a better points return (2.0 points on average and 3 wins) while Brann has 1.4 points and 2 wins, yet Rosenborg failed to score in 83% of their away games versus only 14% of Brann’s home matches without a goal — this is a decisive advantage for the hosts. Consequently I back a Brann victory; I expect a match controlled by the hosts with more chances, hence a probability distribution of 60% home win, 20% draw and 20% away win.

Rosenborg have an away season goals average of 0.5 and failed to score in 83% of away matches (seasonFTSPercentage_away 83%), with a season BTTS of 0% — a strong signal that the visitors rarely score. Brann at home average 2.0 goals and concede 1.13 per match (seasonScoredAVG_home 2.0, seasonConcededAVG_home 1.13), have 50% BTTS at home and BTTS was 100% in the last 5 home matches (seasonBTTSPercentage_home 50.0, last5_seasonBTTSPercentage_overall_home 100.0), so the home side is very likely to score. xG comparison shows Rosenborg xG_for 1.15 away vs Brann xG_against 1.3 at home (xg_for_avg_away 1.15, xg_against_avg_home 1.3), but Rosenborg’s low shot conversion rate of 5% with an average of 10 shots (shot_conversion_rate_away 5.0, shotsAVG_away 10.0) results in a season average of 0.5 goals and weakens the visitors’ scoring chance. Even though Rosenborg scored 12 goals in their last 5 away matches (gf_last5_away 12, last5_seasonScoredAVG_overall_away 2.4) and had a recent xG of 1.63 (last5_xg_for_avg_overall_away 1.63), their last 5 matches had only 20% BTTS, so short-term form does not overwrite the season-long lack of efficiency. As a result, season signals for the visitors failing to score are stronger (seasonFTSPercentage_away 83%, seasonBTTSPercentage_away 0.0), therefore I recommend BTTS - No.

Estimated xG is 1.73 for Brann and 1.22 for Rosenborg, totaling 2.95 xG for the match. A Poisson model with λ=2.95 indicates ~79.5% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~57% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~35% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal indicators confirm an offensive tempo: Brann have 100% of matches Over 1.5 and 63% Over 2.5; Rosenborg 83% Over 1.5 and 33% Over 2.5; and in the last 5 matches both teams produced Over 2.5 in 100% of cases. Combining xG, the Poisson model and seasonal data I assess probabilities of Over 1.5 at 87%, Over 2.5 at 68% and Over 3.5 at 29%, therefore I recommend betting on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal. Additionally Brann average 4.88 shots on target with a 14% conversion versus Rosenborg 3.17 shots on target and 5% conversion, which increases the likelihood of goals for the home side.

Brann holds a clear offensive superiority: on average 2.0 goals per match versus Rosenborg’s 0.5, with xG 1.64 compared to 1.15, and the home side wins 50% of matches versus 17% for the visitors. At half-time Brann scores on average 1.25 goals, Rosenborg only 0.17; the hosts led at the break in 3 matches (38%) with 5 HT draws (63%), which increases the probability of a draw or the home side leading after 45 minutes. After the break Brann scores on average 0.75 goals and have collected 12 points in second halves (an average of 1.5 points per second half), whereas Rosenborg have 0.33 goals after the break and only 5 points (0.83 per match), so the hosts are more likely to stage a turnaround or confirm the result in the second half. Additionally, the visitors display low shooting efficiency (on average 3.17 shots on target and a 5% conversion), therefore the most likely outcome is a Half-Time/Full-Time draw at the break and Brann to win the match (X/1 ~34%), with alternatives 1/1 ~25% and X/X ~21%.