Broń Radom vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki: match statistics

Lechia T. Mazowiecki appears the favorite, having scored 48 goals this season versus Broń Radom’s 29, while in the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 14 goals compared to just 3 for the hosts. Broń at home generates a solid 1.71 xG and averages 15.11 shots (5.56 on target), scoring 1.45 goals and conceding 1.09 per match on average, which indicates good chance creation but moderate finishing (conversion rate 9%). Lechia away posts 1.52 xG, averages 11.88 shots and converts better (13%), translating to 1.83 goals per game, despite conceding 1.75 on average. Additionally, Lechia has recently averaged 1.6 points per match over the last 5 fixtures versus 0.8 for Broń, and the hosts have conceded 10 goals in their last 5 matches (2.0 per game), signaling defensive issues. Based on this, I assess a higher probability of a visitor win, although the match should be open given the home xG advantage for the hosts.

A strong case for BTTS - Yes is the seasonal profile of both teams: Broń Radom has BTTS at 83%, Lechia T. Mazowiecki 67%, and the league average BTTS is 64%, indicating a high propensity for both teams to score. Both sides register high seasonal xG and goals – on average 2.17 scored by Broń and 1.83 by Lechia with xG of 1.86 vs 1.52 respectively – and concede on average 1.42 (Broń) and 1.75 (Lechia), which favors goal exchange. A limitation is Broń’s poor form in the last 5 matches: only 3 goals scored (0.6 per match) and BTTS in 20% of games, while Lechia in the same period has 14 goals (2.8 per match) and BTTS 80%, increasing the likelihood of goals from the visitors. Additionally, clean sheet chances are low: Broń has 8% of matches without conceding this season, Lechia 17%, and the league averages 3.42 goals per match, so a no-goal outcome for one side is unlikely. Overall, the superiority of seasonal BTTS rates, xG and low clean sheets gives a stronger signal for Yes than No, hence a 72% forecast for BTTS versus 28% against.

Home side average 2.17 goals per match, visitors 1.83; season xG is 1.86 for Broń and 1.52 for Lechia. Comparing home offensive xG (1.86) with away defensive xG (1.62) and vice versa (1.52 vs 1.54) implies expected goals of about 1.74 for the home team and 1.53 for the visitors, totaling roughly 3.27 goals. Season stats show the home side had over 1.5 in 100% of matches, visitors in 92%, and Both Teams to Score rates of 83% (home) and 67% (away) — a strong signal for Over 1.5 and BTTS. In the last 5 matches the home team scored 3 goals (0.6 per game), while the visitors scored 14 goals (2.8 per game), which further increases goal probability; therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the best line.

I consider the most likely scenario to be 1/1: the home side led at the break in 6 of their home matches (50%) and score on average 1.17 goals in the first half versus 1.00 for the visitors. Broń concedes only 0.42 goals by half-time compared to Lechia’s 0.58, has a higher xG (1.86 vs 1.52) and produces more shots (16.91 vs 11.88) and more shots on target (6.36 vs 4.88), which increases the chance to take and maintain a lead. Although Lechia has better season scoring averages (1.42 vs 1.25) and a higher win rate (42% vs 33%), the home team has collected more points by half-time (22 vs 18) and has a higher average half-time points per match (1.83 vs 1.50), giving them an advantage in terms of leading at the break. Therefore I assign the highest weight to 1/1, with X/1 and X/X as possible but less likely alternatives.