Broń Radom vs Troszyn: match statistics

The favorite is Troszyn: they sit 5th vs Broń Radom’s 16th and have scored 68 goals this season compared to Broń’s 34 — twice as many. The form gap is clear — Troszyn have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.4 points in that span, while Broń have lost all last 5 (0 points), scoring just 5 and conceding 10. Efficiency favors the visitors: Troszyn convert shots to goals at 14% away and score 2.07 goals per match on average, whereas Broń at home have an 8% conversion and 1.36 goals per match despite a higher shots-per-game average of 15.17. Broń register a slightly higher home xG (1.71) and concede 1.29 goals per home match, while Troszyn have 1.5 xG away and concede 1.71, although the hosts’ last 5 home games have seen 10 goals conceded. Considering the twofold season goal differential (68 vs 34), superior efficiency (14% vs 8%) and current form (4 wins vs 5 losses), I predict a Troszyn win.

I tip BTTS - Yes because the statistical signals strongly support it: Broń Radom has a seasonal BTTS rate of 60%, Troszyn 71%, and the league average is 63%. xG metrics indicate both teams create chances — Broń records 1.93 xG per match versus 1.11 xG conceded by Troszyn, while Troszyn posts 1.50 xG versus 1.09 xG conceded by Broń. Both sides rarely fail to score (percentage of matches without a goal is only 7% for each, i.e. in practice they score in 93% of matches), with seasonal average goals 2.6 (Broń) and 2.07 (Troszyn) and average goals conceded 1.13 and 1.71 respectively. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Broń concedes 2.0 goals and scores 1.0, while Troszyn scores 1.8 and concedes 1.2, and Over 2.5 occurs in 80% of Broń’s home games and 79% of Troszyn’s away games — collectively a strong signal for Goal/Goal.

Broń Radom scores an average of 2.60 goals per home match with xG 1.93, while Troszyn scores 2.07 goals away with xG 1.50; both teams average 7.75 and 5.0 shots on target per game respectively. Considering seasonal figures and the last 5 matches (xG 1.39 for Broń, 1.60 for Troszyn), I project 1.95 goals for the home side and 1.80 for the visitors, totaling 3.75 expected goals. Seasonal percentages show Over 1.5 in 93% of Broń’s matches and 100% of Troszyn’s, and Over 2.5 in 80%/79%; the league average is 3.38 goals per game, which further supports the over scenario. A Poisson model with λ=3.75 yields roughly a 72% probability for Over 2.5 and about 52% for Over 3.5, and the average between the model and seasonal percentages leads to an estimate of around 92% for Over 1.5, therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest line.

I expect a Half-Time draw with Broń Radom winning Full-Time (X/1). Broń leads in chance creation: xG 1.93 versus 1.50 for Troszyn, averaging 16.13 shots per match vs 11.8 and 7.75 shots on target vs 5.0, which translates to season scoring averages of 2.60 vs 2.07 and a higher win rate 60% vs 43%. The first half is more balanced and often favors the visitors’ initial activity — Troszyn averages 1.14 goals at the break vs Broń’s 0.86 and 26 first-half goals vs 21; in the last 5 matches Broń has lost all 5 (0% wins) while Troszyn has an 80% win rate. The decisive numbers are after the break: Broń scores on average 1.79 goals in the second half vs Troszyn’s 0.93 and concedes only 0.36 vs 1.00, and the home side improves in second halves (71% of matches with a better second-half performance) with an average points return after the break of 2.29 vs 1.29, suggesting comebacks and dominance late on. Therefore X/1 is the strongest signal; 1/1 and 2/1 are possible scenarios (roughly 38% combined), while an away win full-time is considered unlikely.