Broń Radom vs Warta Sieradz: match statistics

Warta Sieradz appears to be the favorite: they sit 3rd with a record of 20 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses and 63 goals scored vs 34 conceded, while Broń Radom are 14th with a 9–9–15 record and 40–56 goal difference. In the last 5 matches Warta scored 10 goals, remained unbeaten (2 wins and 3 draws) and averages 1.8 points per game, whereas Broń scored 8 goals, won only 1 of 5 and averages 1.0 point per game. At the quality-of-chances level, Broń at home has an xG of 1.65 and averages 4.86 shots on target per match, which converts to 1.31 goals at a 9% conversion rate, while Warta away has xG 1.54, 4.62 shots on target on average and a higher conversion rate of 14%, translating to 1.63 goals. The decisive advantage for the visitors is defense and consistency: Warta concedes only 0.94 goals away and records 38% clean sheets, whereas Broń concedes 1.31 at home and has 19% clean sheets; additionally Broń lose 38% of home matches compared to Warta’s 13% away loss rate. Considering Warta’s higher goal output (63 vs 40), superior efficiency (14% vs 9%) and unbeaten form in the last 5, I predict an away win and estimate their chances at about 60%, 25% for a draw and 15% for a home success.

The 'both teams to score' scenario is favored by the stats: Broń has BTTS in 76% of matches this season, Warta 63%, and the league BTTS average is 62%. In the last 5 rounds both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of fixtures, with average goals of 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded for Broń, and 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded for Warta. xG analysis shows both sides create chances — Broń xG 1.45, Warta 1.54, combined xG ≈2.99, and combined average shots 23.34 (11.19 + 12.15), indicating a high volume of opportunities. Broń also has a higher shot conversion rate 19% versus Warta 14% and a low clean sheet percentage 24% (Warta 38%), which increases the likelihood of mutual scoring (BTTS - Yes).

xG analysis indicates 1.42 goals for Broń and 1.40 for Warta (total 2.82): I calculated this as the average pair xG — for the home side (1.45 + 1.39)/2 = 1.42, for the away side (1.54 + 1.26)/2 = 1.40. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 — Broń has a seasonal share of matches with at least 2 goals at 94%, Warta 81% (average 87.5%), and the league averages 3.34 goals per match, so I assign Over 1.5 an 88% probability versus 12% for Under. Over 2.5 has moderate support: Broń 82% vs Warta 44% (average 63%) and in the last 5 matches for both teams the Over 2.5 rate was 60%, hence an Over 2.5 rating of 62%. Over 3.5 looks unlikely — seasonally Broń 29% and Warta 19% of matches exceed 3.5 goals (average 24%), so Under 3.5 has a 76% edge; additionally, although Broń has a high conversion rate of 19% and averages 2.18 goals per game, xG (1.45/1.54) and clean sheet rates (Broń 24%, Warta 38%) advise caution on higher lines, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the best line.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). A half-time draw is natural — Broń Radom records a half-time draw in 47% of matches, Warta in 53%, yielding roughly a 50% chance of a draw at the break. After the break goals predominate and Broń has the edge: the home side features in 94% of matches with a second-half goal and scores on average 1.35 goals in the second half versus Warta’s 1.20, and furthermore Broń wins 71% of matches, so they more frequently decide the outcome after the break. Broń scores on average 0.82 goals by half-time versus Warta’s 0.47 and has better shot conversion 19% vs 14%, despite similar xG (1.45 vs 1.54), which indicates greater efficiency from the hosts. Therefore I assign the X/1 scenario the highest probability of 36%, and treat 1/1 and X/X as realistic alternatives at 18% each; remaining scenarios are allocated smaller probabilities.