Burgos CF vs Granada CF: match statistics

Burgos CF have won 3 of their last 5 matches, conceding just 4 goals, while Granada CF have won once and conceded as many as 12. At home, Burgos have won 75% of their matches, scoring an average of 2.25 goals, while Granada concede an average of 1.8 goals away from home. The visitors do take more shots on the road — 17.8 compared with 9.5 for the hosts at home — and create chances with a higher xG (1.71 vs. 1.04), but Burgos are more clinical, converting 24% of their chances compared with 9%. The reason for caution is that the hosts allow chances worth an average xG of 1.62 at home, so despite their superior form, Granada have a genuine chance of finding the net.

Burgos have recorded BTTS in 67% of their home matches, while Granada have done so in 60% of their away games, with both teams exceeding the league average of 49%. The hosts score an average of 1.67 goals at home, while the visitors concede 1.8 goals per away match; Granada have conceded as many as 12 goals in their last 5 matches, increasing the likelihood of Burgos finding the net. Granada also have a good case for scoring: they average 1.6 goals away from home with an xG of 1.71, while Burgos concede an average of 1.33 goals at home. The main risk to BTTS - Yes is that Granada have failed to score in 40% of their away matches; however, BTTS has landed in 4 of their last 5 games. Overall, both teams' stronger attacking indicators outweigh the signs pointing to at least one side failing to score, making BTTS - Yes the preferred pick.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 100% of Burgos matches and 80% of Granada matches. The hosts score an average of 1.67 goals, while Granada concede 1.80; in their last five matches, the visitors have conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game. Granada also carry attacking potential, with an average xG of 1.71, although Burgos have conceded just 0.8 goals per game over their last five matches. The combined forecast of 3.10 goals supports an over, but the disparity at the 2.5-goal line—cleared in 33% of Burgos matches and 80% of Granada matches—makes Over 1.5 the safer pick.

The strongest signal for Burgos to lead at the break is that Granada were trailing at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 1.6 goals over that period. Burgos, meanwhile, led at half-time twice in the same period and conceded just 0.4 goals on average in first halves, although the possibility of a draw remains significant. The hosts’ recent form supports them holding on to their lead: they won 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 0.8 goals, while Granada lost 3 of 5 and conceded 2.4 goals. Burgos also average 1.33 goals after half-time, giving them a chance to strengthen their lead. The risk to the 1/1 pick is Granada’s attacking threat, as they score an average of 1.4 goals after half-time, but their poor starts and recent results tip the balance in the hosts’ favor.