Bursaspor vs Mardin BB: match statistics

Bursaspor have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals in the process, while Mardin BB have managed just 1 win and scored 4 goals. At home, the hosts average 2.33 goals per match, compared with the visitors’ 1.25 away from home; Bursaspor’s edge is also reflected in their shot conversion rate of 18% versus 10%. The hosts average 4.33 shots on target per home match, while Mardin BB average 2.75 away. The visitors’ defense remains solid, conceding an average of 0.75 goals away from home, but they allow chances worth 1.45 xG per match, while Bursaspor create 1.51 xG at home. The hosts are still unbeaten at home and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of those matches, making them favorites, although Mardin BB’s 50% away draw rate suggests a draw should also be considered.

Both teams have recorded BTTS in only 25% of their matches, well below the league average of 53%, making it more likely that at least one team will fail to score. Bursaspor kept a clean sheet in 50% of its matches and conceded an average of 0.5 goals, while Mardin BB failed to score in 50% of its games. However, the hosts’ last five outings point in the opposite direction: they scored an average of 2.4 goals, with BTTS landing in 80% of those matches. This signal is tempered by the visitors’ scoring form: over the same period, they averaged just 0.8 goals despite an xG of 1.44. Given this gap in finishing efficiency and the hosts’ solid defense, BTTS - No is the stronger pick, although it still carries some risk.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: all of Bursaspor’s included home matches and 75% of Mardin BB’s away matches finished with no more than three goals. In these matches, Bursaspor conceded an average of 0.5 goals, while Mardin BB conceded 0.75, limiting the likelihood of a very high-scoring game. However, the hosts have an average xG of 1.56 and scored an average of 2.4 goals across their last five matches, so a completely low-scoring outcome is not certain. Meanwhile, the visitors averaged 0.8 goals in their last five games, making the estimated total of 2.42 goals a stronger case for the 3.5 line than the riskier 2.5 line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Bursaspor were level at the break in 3 of their 4 home matches, while Mardin BB were level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches overall. In addition, the hosts averaged just 0.25 goals before the break at home, and the visitors did not concede in the first half in any of their 4 away matches. After the break, the advantage shifts to Bursaspor, who scored an average of 1.6 goals in the second half across their last 5 matches, compared with 0.4 for Mardin BB. Over the same period, the visitors conceded an average of 1.0 goal after half-time, while the hosts won the second half in 4 of their 5 matches. Therefore, the strongest HT/FT pick is a draw at half-time followed by a Bursaspor win at full-time, although the home and away samples include only 4 matches each.