CA Bizertin vs Hammam-Sousse: match statistics

CA Bizertin remain unbeaten this season, recording 2 wins and 1 draw, while Hammam-Sousse have failed to win any of their 4 matches and sit 15th. The hosts create significantly more chances at home, averaging 20.5 shots and 6.5 shots on target per match, with an xG of 2.00, compared with just 4.5 shots and an xG of 0.52 for the visitors away from home. Hammam-Sousse are yet to score an away goal, have registered not a single shot on target and have lost both of their matches on the road. Bizertin’s defense also looks more solid, conceding an average of 0.5 goals at home with an against-xG of 0.79, while the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.54. The difference in the quality of chances created and Hammam-Sousse’s extremely poor away finishing strongly favor a home win.

The strongest signal against BTTS comes from Hammam-Sousse’s attack: the visitors average 0.0 goals, have an xG of just 0.52, and have not recorded a shot on target per match. In their last five games, both teams had BTTS in only 20% of matches, while Hammam-Sousse averaged 0.4 goals. CA Bizertin are also unimpressive in terms of finishing, averaging 0.5 goals this season and 0.6 over their last five matches. The hosts have nevertheless conceded an average of 1.0 goal in their recent run, but restrict opponents to an xG of 0.88, further reducing the visitors’ chances of scoring. A BTTS outcome is not ruled out due to Hammam-Sousse’s weak defensive record, allowing an xG of 1.54, but the more likely scenario is BTTS - No: at least one team, primarily the visitors, will fail to score.

The match profile clearly points to limited goal production: the hosts score an average of 0.5 goals, while Hammam-Sousse have averaged fewer than one goal per match. The visitors have scored just 2 goals in their last five appearances, averaging 0.4 goals, with their average xG standing at only 0.74. CA Bizertin have a better recent xG figure of 1.60, but converted it into just 3 goals across five matches, which limits the risk of a high-scoring game. In the hosts’ last five matches, Over 2.5 goals has not landed even once, while this outcome occurred in only 20% of the visitors’ matches. With a projected total of 1.70 goals, the strongest option is Under 3.5 goals, as the bet would require at least four goals to lose.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as both teams have drawn at the break in 100% of their league matches so far. Hammam-Sousse have yet to score in the league, with an average xG of just 0.52, while CA Bizertin have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches. The hosts also lack significant attacking strength, averaging 0.5 goals with an xG of 0.76, and have scored only 0.2 goals before half-time across their last five appearances. Each of the visitors’ last five matches produced a draw at half-time, while first halves involving them averaged just 0.4 goals. CA Bizertin have a slight form advantage, averaging 1.4 points per match over their last five games compared with their opponents’ 0.8, which is why the HT/FT draw/home win outcome remains the main alternative.