Caen vs Rouen: match statistics

Rouen remain top of the table and are unbeaten in all 7 league matches, collecting 13 points and scoring 11 goals in their last five games. Away from home, the visitors have won all three of their matches so far, averaging 2.67 goals, 13.33 shots and 5.33 shots on target per game. Caen are very solid at home, winning 75% of their matches, conceding just 0.25 goals per game and keeping a clean sheet in 75% of their appearances. However, Rouen’s advantage lies in their greater current attacking efficiency: they have scored in every away match and convert 20% of their shots, compared with 14% for Caen. The hosts have a higher home xG average, 1.62 versus 1.50, but the visitors’ excellent run and defensive record of just 0.33 goals conceded per away game slightly favor a Rouen victory.

A scenario in which one of the teams fails to score is clearly more likely, as BTTS occurred in only 25% of Caen’s matches and 33% of Rouen’s games this season, compared with the league average of 38%. Both defenses regularly keep clean sheets: Caen in 75% of matches and Rouen in 67%, while their average goals conceded is very low at 0.25 and 0.33, respectively. The trend across the last five matches provides even stronger support for BTTS - No, with Caen recording no matches in which both teams scored, while Rouen had this outcome in only 20% of games. Rouen are in excellent defensive form, conceding just 1 goal in their last five matches and allowing opponents an xG of 0.85, so Caen may struggle to find the net. The hosts have also conceded only 3 goals in their last five games, reducing the chances of an open match despite Rouen’s high recent scoring average of 2.2 goals per game.

The 2.40-goal projection is based on both teams’ highly solid defenses: Caen concede an average of 0.25 goals, while Rouen concede just 0.33 per match. In their last five matches, the hosts have allowed a total of 3 goals, whereas Rouen have conceded only 1, despite the visitors scoring an average of 2.2 goals themselves. Caen have not recorded a single match over 2.5 goals in their last five appearances, and all of their matches this season have finished under 3.5 goals. Rouen have a strong attack, averaging 2.67 goals, but their average xG is 1.50, while Caen allow opponents 1.04 xG, limiting the prospect of a very high-scoring game. Under 3.5 has the edge, as the combination of a low number of goals conceded and a high clean-sheet rate—75% for Caen and 67% for Rouen—clearly favors a result with no more than three goals.

Rouen have demonstrated significantly stronger away efficiency, averaging 2.67 goals scored and conceding just 0.33 per match, while Caen score 1.25 goals at home. In their last five matches, the visitors have won 80% of their games and remain unbeaten, whereas Caen have suffered defeat in 40% of their outings. At half-time, Rouen were leading in 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding none, while Caen managed only 0.4 goals before the break during this period. After the interval, the visitors’ advantage remains evident, as they have averaged 1.67 goals in the second half over the course of the season, compared with Caen’s mere 0.25. The most likely scenario is therefore an HT/FT outcome of 1/1, with Rouen taking the lead at the break and maintaining it until the final whistle.