Calvary vs Police Uganda: match statistics

I predict an away win (Police Uganda). Police Uganda have 13 wins and 39 goals this season versus just 2 wins and 10 goals for Calvary, and in the last 5 matches the visitors scored 8 goals with a 3-0-2 record and an average of 1.8 points per game, while the hosts scored 3 goals and average 1.6 points per game. Calvary score only 0.5 goals per game at home and fail to score in 67% of matches, whereas Police as visitors average 1.38 goals and fail to score in only 8% of away games, which clearly indicates the visitors’ efficiency advantage. Promising for the hosts is that they concede only 0.75 goals at home and keep 50% clean sheets, however their home xG averages 1.91 with xG against 1.66 — they create chances (16 shots and 4 on target on average) but convert poorly (0.5 goals per game). Considering Police’s superior season record (13 wins vs 2) and stronger away efficiency, I assign a 60% probability to a Police Uganda win, 25% to a draw and 15% to a Calvary win.

I assess BTTS - Yes as more likely (70%) primarily due to the clear away-side tendency: Police Uganda posts a seasonal BTTS of 85% and 80% in the last 5 matches and scores on average 1.38 goals per season and 1.6 in the last 5. Calvary at home has a seasonal goals scored average of 1.62 and xG 1.69, while showing a seasonal BTTS of 46% and 0% in the last 5; the hosts average 4.92 shots on target per match but have recently generated poorly (xG_for in last 5 matches 0.19). xG comparison shows Calvary with xG_for 1.69 versus Police 1.53, and Police with xG_against 1.6 versus the hosts’ 1.41, indicating both teams have a realistic chance to score. Additionally, Police have scored 39 goals this season versus Calvary’s 10, and Police’s seasonal average goals conceded is 1.62, which favors open matches and increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Overall, the strong away signals of 85% and 80% combined with the xG and shots comparison lead me to rate BTTS - Yes at 70% and No Goal at 30%.

The model projects ~3.12 total goals: 1.65 for Calvary (xG 1.69 vs opponent’s conceded average 1.60) and 1.47 for Police Uganda (xG 1.53 vs Calvary’s conceded average 1.41). Both sides have a high-season rate of matches over 1.5 goals – Calvary 85% and Police 92% – making Over 1.5 highly likely (~90%). Over 2.5 is also well-supported: season rates 46% (Calvary) and 69% (Police), and Police have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches (Calvary 3), which combined with total xG and average shots (11.92 vs 11.58) yields roughly a 63% chance of Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is less likely – only 8% of Calvary’s and 38% of Police’s matches exceeded 3.5, and the expected 3.12 is below the 3.5 threshold, so I assess Under 3.5 at about 72%. The strongest signal is the Over line at 1.5; the high Over 1.5 shares (85% vs 92%) and combined xG ~3.12 provide the greatest confidence.

Calvary are clear favorites: at home they win 69% of matches, average 2.15 points at home, score on average 1.62 goals (xG 1.69) and concede 0.77, while Police score 1.38 and concede 1.62 with xG 1.53. At half-time Calvary led in 6 matches (46%) and average 0.85 HT goals scored with only 0.31 conceded, whereas Police led at the break in 1 match (8%) and average 0.42 HT goals scored and 1.00 conceded. The home side have 69% clean sheets at half-time and average 1.85 points gained by half-time versus Police’s 0.67, which suggests that a lead at the break for them often translates into maintaining the result and a final victory. Based on this, the scenario of leading at half-time and winning full-time for the home side (1/1) produced the strongest signal and I assigned it a 42% probability; a draw at half-time followed by a home win (X/1) I rated at 25%, while combinations starting with Police leading are rare (HT 8%), so the combined share of scenarios beginning with ‘2’ is about 8%.