Cancún vs Atlético Zacatepec: match statistics

Cancún have a clear home advantage, averaging 2.25 goals per match and creating chances worth 2.12 xG, while Atlético Zacatepec score just 1 goal away from home with 1.09 xG. The hosts average 17 shots, including 7.5 on target, whereas the visitors manage only 9 attempts and 3.25 shots on target. Zacatepec’s away defense concedes 2.25 goals per game and allows opponents 1.79 xG, which favors a strong performance from Cancún. Current form also points to the hosts: they have scored 12 goals and won 3 times in their last five matches, while the visitors have scored 5 goals and suffered 2 defeats during the same period. With Atlético Zacatepec losing 75% of their away matches, a Cancún victory is the most likely outcome.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 3 of their last 5 matches, equating to 60%, which is above Cancún’s seasonal figure of 25%. The hosts are in significantly better offensive form, averaging 2.2 goals across their last five matches with an xG of 1.74, while Atlético Zacatepec conceded an average of 1.4 goals during this period. Although the visitors score only 1.0 goal per match, Cancún allowed opponents an xG of 1.50 across its last five appearances, clearly above its seasonal average of 0.93. Additionally, Atlético Zacatepec has kept a clean sheet in only 25% of its matches and allows opponents 2.25 goals per game over the season, making a goal from the hosts highly likely. The main risk to BTTS - Yes is Cancún’s stronger seasonal defense, which has kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches, but the current indicators give a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

Cancún create chances worth an average of 1.64 xG at home and take 14.25 shots per match, while Atlético Zacatepec concede as many as 2.25 goals and 1.79 xG away from home. The hosts are also in good form, averaging 2.4 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while the visitors conceded 1.4 goals per game during the same period. Despite this, the 3.5 line remains high: Cancún have not yet played a league match featuring more than 3 goals, while matches involving Zacatepec finished with fewer than 3.5 goals in 75% of cases. The hosts’ defense allows opponents an average of just 0.75 goals at home and has kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches, limiting the visitors’ scoring potential. The projected total of 2.70 goals points to a realistic chance of two or three goals, but still favors the Under 3.5 goals bet.

Cancún has a clearly stronger home profile: it averages 1.64 xG compared with Atlético Zacatepec’s 1.09 xG, while the visitors’ opponents concede an average of 2.25 goals per match. The hosts have won 50% of their games, whereas Atlético have lost 75% of theirs, and Cancún have conceded in only 50% of their appearances. The signal before half-time is more cautious, as Cancún were level at the break in 2 of 4 matches; however, the visitors have failed to score before half-time in any game and went into the interval without a goal in 100% of their matches. Across their last five matches, Cancún have averaged 2.2 goals scored, including 1.4 after the break while conceding just 0.2, which strengthens the scenario of maintaining or building a lead. The most likely outcome remains a 1/1 HT/FT result, with the hosts leading at the break and securing victory at the final whistle.