Casa Pia vs Benfica: match statistics

I predict an away win (2). Benfica sits 3rd in the league with 58 goals this season versus Casa Pia’s 26 (16th), a 32-goal offensive gap. Away, Benfica averages 1.92 goals scored and concedes only 0.54 with a 77% away win rate and 0% away loss rate, while Casa Pia win only 17% of home matches, score 1.33 and concede 1.83 per game. The chance-creation gap is clear: Benfica averages 16.31 shots and 5.23 on target per match with xG 1.83, Casa Pia 7.67 shots and 2.67 on target with xG 0.91; despite the hosts’ higher conversion (17% vs 12%), the volume of chances and superior xG favor the visitors. In the last 5 matches Benfica scored 10 goals and average 2 points per match, Casa Pia scored 4 and average 1 point per match. I assign probabilities: 80% Benfica win, 12% draw, 8% home win.

Seasonal stats give a moderate signal for BTTS: Casa Pia has a season BTTS rate of 57% and scores 2.36 goals at home on average (xG 2.06), while Benfica has a season BTTS rate of 46% and scores 1.92 goals away on average (xG 1.83). In the last 5 matches signals diverge – Casa Pia had BTTS in 40% of games and scored 4 goals in those 5 matches (0.8 avg) while conceding 9 (1.8 avg), whereas Benfica had BTTS in 80% and scored 10 goals (2.0 avg) while conceding 6 (1.2 avg). Defensively Benfica looks better on the season, conceding only 0.54 goals away and recording 54% clean sheets, versus 0.71 goals conceded and 43% clean sheets for Casa Pia, which reduces the chance of BTTS, but their recent matches indicate otherwise. Combining this with xG data (Casa Pia xG_for 2.06 vs Benfica xG_against 1.03 and Benfica xG_for 1.83 vs Casa Pia xG_against 0.92) and Benfica’s clear recent BTTS trend (80% in 5 matches), the scenario of both teams scoring appears stronger. Therefore I assign roughly 60% to 'yes' and 40% to 'no' and recommend 'BTTS - Yes' as the most likely outcome.

Casa Pia scores an average of 2.36 goals per match (xG 2.06), while Benfica records 1.92 goals (xG 1.83); defensively Casa Pia concedes on average 0.71 goals (xG against 0.92), and Benfica only 0.54 goals (xG against 1.03). I computed total expected goals as the average of a team’s offensive xG and the opponent’s defensive xG: Casa Pia (2.06+1.03)/2 = 1.545 ≈ 1.55, Benfica (1.83+0.92)/2 = 1.375 ≈ 1.37, total ≈ 2.92 goals. A Poisson model for a sum of 2.92 yields about a 79% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 56% for Over 2.5, which is above the league average of 2.72. Seasonal stats further support the over: Over 1.5 in 93% of Casa Pia’s matches and 77% of Benfica’s, and Over 2.5 in 71% and 69% respectively; in the last 5 matches Benfica has 100% Over 2.5, Casa Pia 40%, which increases the likelihood of more goals. Therefore the strongest and clearest signal is Over 1.5 (model ~79% + seasonal 93%/77%), so I recommend a bet on Over at the 1.5 line.

I forecast HT/FT 1/2 (Casa Pia leading at the break, Benfica winning after full-time) as the most likely scenario. Casa Pia led at half-time in 64% of their home matches and average 1.29 goals by the break (24 first-half goals total), providing a clear signal for the home side to hold a lead after 45 minutes. Benfica, however, show a marked advantage in second halves: in their last five away matches opponents conceded an average of 1.8 second-half goals and Benfica won 60% of those games, scoring an average of 2.0 goals per match in that sample. Additionally, Benfica record a 77% win rate on the road and average 2.54 points per away match, whereas Casa Pia have averaged only 0.8 goals and a 20% win rate in their last five matches, suggesting the hosts may not sustain the lead. These statistics point to the strongest signal being Casa Pia leading at half-time and Benfica securing the turnaround by full-time (1/2).