Celtic vs Dundee: match statistics

Dundee holds a clear advantage in attack and current form: they have scored 14 goals in the last 5 matches, while Celtic have scored 8 in the same period. The visitors also average more points over that span — 2.0 points per game versus Celtic’s 1.2 — and have won 3 of their last 5 fixtures compared to the hosts’ 1 win. Defensively Dundee conceded 7 goals in the last 5 matches and Celtic 9, giving the visitors a slight edge at the back as well. Detailed home statistics are missing in the provided data (many values marked as 0), so the forecast is primarily based on the last 5-match sample. Considering 14 vs 8 goals, 2.0 vs 1.2 points per game and 3 wins for the visitors versus 1 for the hosts, Dundee are the favorites and I propose the probability distribution: away 55%, draw 25%, home 20%.

Based on the last 5 matches for both home and away teams, Celtic has BTTS at 100% (5/5) while Dundee only 40% (2/5), which already strongly supports Both Teams To Score. Dundee scored 14 goals in those five matches (avg. 2.8 per game) compared to Celtic’s 8 goals (1.6 per game), so the visitors are clearly more productive offensively (2.8 vs 1.6). On the other hand, Celtic concedes an average of 1.8 goals per game (9 conceded) and Dundee concedes 1.4 goals (7 conceded), indicating both teams are prone to allowing goals (1.8 vs 1.4). xG data is another signal: Dundee has xG for 1.95 vs Celtic 1.17, and xG against of 1.25 for Dundee and 1.36 for Celtic, suggesting chances are being created and conceded on both sides. Considering Celtic’s 100% BTTS, Dundee’s high goals average (2.8) and the hosts’ moderate goals allowed (1.8), I forecast a 75% probability of BTTS (YES) and 25% for No Goal (NO).

In the last 5 matches Celtic averaged 1.6 goals per game and Dundee 2.8 goals, totaling 4.4 goals based on current form. xG over those 5 games is 1.17 for Celtic and 1.95 for Dundee, with xG against of 1.36 (Celtic) and 1.25 (Dundee), confirming Dundee’s clearer chance creation. A model based on goals and xG averages yields expected goals of 1.38 for Celtic and 2.05 for Dundee (total 3.43); a Poisson with λ=3.43 implies Over 1.5 ≈86%, Over 2.5 ≈67% and Over 3.5 ≈45%. Additionally, Celtic had BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, and Dundee recorded Over 2.5 in 80% of games, which strengthens the signal for Over. Based on this, the best line to play is Over 1.5 (strongest signal: 86% probability); Over 2.5 also shows value (67%) but is less certain.

Statistics from the last 5 matches show that Celtic led at the break in 40% of games, a half-time draw occurred in 40%, and Dundee led in 20%. Celtic scored an average of 1.0 goal by half-time versus 0.4 by Dundee, so the home side have a stronger start to the first half (80% of Celtic’s matches had >0.5 goals by half-time). However, after the break Dundee dominate: the visitors score an average of 2.4 goals in the second half versus 0.6 by Celtic and won 60% of the last 5 matches’ second halves, while Celtic won only 20%. Dundee won second halves in 60% of cases and Celtic recorded no second-half victories in these five games, which strongly supports a turnaround by the visitors. For this reason the most likely scenario is Celtic leading at half-time with Dundee winning the match (HT/FT 1/2), therefore I recommend the 1/2 pick.