Dundee vs Celtic: match statistics

Celtic are the favorites for this match: they have scored 56 goals this season versus Dundee’s 31, recorded 19 wins compared to Dundee’s 8, and sit 3rd in the table while Dundee are 8th. Celtic also produce higher-quality chances — average away xG is 1.56 versus Dundee’s 1.25 xG, with 14.06 shots and 3.88 on target per game compared to 10.87 shots and 3.47 on target, and 65% possession versus 45% for the hosts. Defensively the visitors also look stronger: Celtic concede 1.38 goals on average away, while Dundee concede 1.6 at home; xG against is 1.34 versus 1.75, and clean sheets are 25% versus 13%. Conversely, Dundee have a higher shot conversion (14% versus Celtic’s 10%) and have scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 per game) versus Celtic’s 7 (1.4), which gives them a realistic chance to score. Considering Celtic’s control of the game and advantage in chance creation, combined with Dundee’s efficiency in finishing, I predict an away win; I assign 55% to Celtic, 23% to a draw and 22% to Dundee.

The signal for BTTS is clear: in the last 5 matches Dundee had BTTS in 80%, and Celtic in 60%, with seasonal rates of 47% and 56% (league 50%), favoring a both-teams-to-score scenario. In their last 5 fixtures Dundee averaged 2.0 goals scored (10) and 1.8 conceded (9), while Celtic averaged 1.4 scored (7) and 1.2 conceded (6), so both sides regularly feature on the scoresheet. xG corroborates the scoring potential: Dundee’s xG_for at home is 2.36 versus Celtic’s away xG_for of 1.56, with xG_against 0.8 (Dundee) and 1.34 (Celtic), suggesting Dundee creates many chances while Celtic has sufficient xG to reply. Against BTTS speaks Dundee’s seasonal 53% clean sheets at home, but this argument is weakened by recent form (Dundee’s recent xG_against 1.94 and 9 goals conceded), and Celtic have only 25% clean sheets away, so overall I favor BTTS. On that basis I recommend a “BTTS - Yes” with an estimated probability of circa 70% vs 30% for “No Goal.”

Statistical analysis points to a high-goals potential: Dundee averages 2.2 goals scored at home (xG_for 2.36), while Celtic has xG_for 1.56 and xG_against 1.34, which averaged gives expected 1.85 goals for Dundee and 1.18 for Celtic (total 3.03). Both teams finished matches with over 1.5 goals this season in 80% (Dundee) and 81% (Celtic) of cases, and on the 2.5 line we have 73% (Dundee at home) versus 56% (Celtic away), with the hosts’ last 5 games also showing 80% over 2.5. Dundee’s attacking edge is confirmed by shot averages 20.07 and 7.47 on target versus Celtic’s 14.06 and 3.88, and slightly better finishing (11% vs 10%), which increases the likelihood of more goals. Based on this I estimate probability of Over 1.5 at ~86%, Over 2.5 at ~68% and Over 3.5 at ~41%, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (ou_pred_line 1.5) — historical 80–81% of matches >1.5 and the combined projected total of 3.03 goals make it the most reliable and conservative bet.

Dundee have a clear home advantage: on average 2.2 goals scored per match vs 1.44 for Celtic, xG 2.36 vs 1.56 and 7.47 shots on target vs 3.88, which translates into 73% home wins compared to 50% away wins. The hosts led at the break in 8 matches (53%) and average 0.87 goals by half-time while conceding only 0.27, whereas Celtic record 0.75 scored and 0.69 conceded by the break; this suggests Dundee superiority in the first 45 minutes. After the interval Dundee remain dangerous — they average 1.33 goals after half-time and have accumulated 31 points in second halves, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead. Based on this, the primary single signal is HT/FT 1/1 with a probability of 45%; given the 53% rate of leading at the break I expect conversion to a full-time win in about 45 percentage points (45/53 ≈ 85%). Alternative scenarios are weaker — a draw at half-time with a later Dundee win I assess at 28%, while a turnaround in Celtic’s favor has much lower chances (1/2 = 5%, 2/2 = 6%).