Celtic vs Hearts: match statistics

Celtic are the favorites for this tie: at home they win 78% of matches and have a perfect run in their last 5 games (5/5), scoring 17 goals, while Hearts have won 4 and drawn 1 in their last 5, scoring 11 goals. The hosts generate clearly more high-quality chances – average xG 2.2 and 7.06 shots on target for Celtic versus xG 1.6 and 4.78 shots on target for Hearts – which converts to 2.22 goals per home game against 1.61 goals per away game for the visitors. Defensively Celtic also have the edge: they concede 0.78 goals per home match and keep 50% clean sheets, whereas Hearts concede 1.11 goals away and have 33% clean sheets; additionally Hearts fail to score in 22% of their away games, while Celtic fail to score in only 6% of home matches. It should be noted, however, that over the whole season Hearts have conceded 31 goals versus Celtic’s 40, and Hearts have a 50% win rate away, which keeps them a real contender. Considering game control (possession 66% vs 55%), chance quality and xG metrics, I predict a home win.

I back BTTS - Yes because in the last 5 matches Celtic has BTTS 100% and Hearts 80%, providing a strong signal of offensive form from both teams. xG comparison shows Celtic generates an average xG 1.71 versus Hearts’ average xG conceded of 1.25, while Hearts posts xG 1.60 against Celtic’s xG conceded 0.99, so both sides create chances that exceed the opponent’s defensive numbers. Seasonal goals averages are 1.95 for Celtic and 1.61 for Hearts, with seasonal goals conceded 0.58 vs 1.11; although Celtic has a seasonal clean sheet expected rate of 58% (vs 33% for Hearts), in the last 5 matches Celtic has conceded an average of 1.4 goals, which diminishes the weight of the seasonal clean sheet figure. Shot metrics also support both sides: Celtic averages 14.79 shots and 5.32 on target (Hearts 13.83 and 4.78), with conversion rates of 13% vs 12%, so the volume and quality of chances should produce goals from both teams. Considering the 100% and 80% BTTS form, positive xG-to-opponent-defense relationships and seasonal goals averages, I assess BTTS probability at 70% vs 30% for No Goal; therefore selection: yes.

Expected goals by a simple average of xG and opponent xG conceded are: Celtic 1.48 (xG attack 1.71 and Hearts xG defense 1.25), Hearts 1.30 (xG attack 1.60 and Celtic xG defense 0.99), total 2.78. Season data shows Over 1.5 in 68% of Celtic matches and 72% of Hearts matches, while Over 2.5 occurs in 47%/56% of fixtures, indicating a stronger signal for the 1.5 threshold. In the last 5 matches Celtic scored 17 goals (3.4 per match) and Hearts 11 goals (2.2 per match), and recent xG is 1.8 vs 1.68, which further increases the likelihood of goals. Using a Poisson model for the sum with λ=2.78 I estimate probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈76%, Over 2.5 ≈52% and Over 3.5 ≈30%, therefore the strongest and safest signal from the data is to back Over 1.5.

Celtic are clear favorites: at home they average 1.95 goals scored and concede 0.58 per match, while Hearts away average 1.61 scored and 1.11 conceded. By half-time the hosts score on average 0.74 goals and concede 0.26; Celtic led at the break in 8 matches, i.e. in 42% of their home appearances, which suggests a strong likelihood of a 1-0 lead at Half-Time. Over Full-Time the statistics also favor Celtic: they have 58% clean sheets at home versus Hearts’ 33% clean sheets away, and the hosts’ xG is 1.71 versus the visitors’ 1.60 xG with xG against 0.99 vs 1.25, confirming the hosts’ offensive-defensive advantage. Form further supports Celtic — they have won all 5 of their last home matches (100% in the last 5), while Hearts have won 4 of 5 away (80%), so I expect the hosts to maintain the edge and win the match (HT/FT: 1/1 implied).