Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse: match statistics

Cerezo Osaka have clearly superior current momentum: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 8 goals in that span, while Shimizu S-Pulse have won just once, scoring 3 goals in total. The hosts won their only home match so far, scoring 2 goals and averaging 4 shots on target from just 6 attempts, which points to a high conversion rate. Shimizu do create plenty of chances away from home, recording 15 shots, 6 on target and an xG of 1.72 per match, but this has translated into just 1 goal at a 7% conversion rate. Cerezo’s defense gives the visitors opportunities, allowing an average xG of 1.88, but Shimizu also allow opponents an xG of 2.17. The hosts’ form advantage and greater attacking efficiency marginally favor a home win, although the match should be closely contested.

The stronger signal is BTTS - No, as Shimizu S-Pulse have scored an average of only 0.6 goals in their last 5 matches and have failed to score in 100% of their league matches so far. Cerezo Osaka have recorded BTTS - Yes in 60% of their last five appearances, but the opponent have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches this season, which directly limits the hosts’ chances. Shimizu have created chances worth 1.47 xG in their last five matches, while Cerezo concede an average of 1.35 xG, so the visitors do not have a clear advantage in this matchup. Both teams have conceded 1.4 goals per match in their latest run, but Shimizu’s poor finishing and the 0% BTTS rate for both teams this season support the view that at least one side will fail to score.

Cerezo Osaka’s last five matches produced an average of 3.0 goals, with the team scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals per game. Over the same period, Shimizu S-Pulse scored only 0.6 goals but conceded 1.4, which primarily favors the home side to score. The attacking potential is supported by xG: Cerezo averages 1.42, while Shimizu allows opponents as much as 2.17 xG. Meanwhile, the visitors generate 1.72 xG, compared with 1.30 xG conceded by the hosts. In their last five matches, the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 80% of Cerezo’s games and 40% of Shimizu’s, while the league-wide average stands at a high 3.35 goals. The strongest selection remains Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.67 goals provides a clear margin above this line, whereas Over 2.5 is already more evenly balanced.

Cerezo Osaka have shown clearly better form in their last five matches, winning 60% of them and averaging 2.0 points, while Shimizu have won just 20% of their games with an average of 0.8 points. The hosts have been particularly strong at the start, taking a lead at the break in 60% of these appearances and scoring an average of 1.4 goals before half-time; Shimizu managed just 0.2 goals during this phase. Cerezo’s advantage is also supported by their chance creation, with an average xG of 1.42, while Shimizu’s defense allows opponents 2.17 xG. However, the visitors are relatively solid before the break, conceding only 0.2 goals per match in their recent run, which reduces confidence in a commanding half-time lead. The most likely scenario, therefore, is that Cerezo will capitalise on their stronger start and maintain their advantage until the final whistle.