Cerro Porteño vs Guaraní: match statistics

Cerro Porteño has a clear advantage in key creative metrics: at home they average 15.44 shots and 5 shots on target per match with xG 1.54, while Guaraní away averages 9.56 shots, 3.33 on target and xG 1.11. The hosts’ defense looks more solid — Cerro Porteño concedes 0.67 goals at home on average and keeps a clean sheet in 44% of matches, whereas Guaraní concede 1.33 goals away and have 33% clean sheets. This dominance is reflected in results: the hosts win 56% of home matches versus just 11% away wins for Guaraní, and in the last 5 meetings both teams scored 5 goals each with average points of 1.6 for Cerro Porteño and 1.4 for Guaraní. Cerro also has superior possession (59% vs 48%), which combined with more shots (15.44 vs 9.56) generates more chances despite the visitors’ higher finishing rate (13% vs 9%). Considering the xG edge (1.54 vs 1.11), better defense (0.67 vs 1.33 conceded per match) and markedly higher home win rate (56% vs 11%), I predict a home win; estimated probabilities are 65% for 1, 20% for draw and 15% for 2.

Both teams display goal metrics that favor Goal/Goal: Cerro Porteño averages 1.4 scored and 0.9 conceded per match, while Guaraní averages 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded; their xG are 1.31 (Cerro) and 1.11 (Guaraní) with xG against 1.33 and 1.39. Seasonal BTTS rates are 40% for Cerro and 56% for Guaraní, and in the last 5 matches 60% and 40% respectively, yielding a season/form average around 48–50% which is close to the league BTTS level of 50%. The key argument for BTTS - Yes is the low clean sheet expected rates: 30% for Cerro and 33% for Guaraní, meaning Cerro fails to keep a clean sheet in 70% of matches and Guaraní in 67% — figures significantly below the league clean sheet rate of 56%. Additionally, Cerro averages 11.7 shots and 4.2 on target versus Guaraní’s 9.56 and 3.33 with conversion rates of 12% and 13%, and the combined xG_for of both teams is 2.42 (1.31+1.11), indicating realistic scoring opportunities at both ends. Therefore I favor BTTS 'Yes' with a probability of 60% vs 40%, because the combined xG 2.42, low clean sheet rates (30%/33%) and seasonal/recent BTTS metrics around 48–50% more strongly support the scenario that both teams will score.

Based on xG I calculated 1.35 for the home side (home xG average 1.31 and xG against the visitors 1.39) and 1.22 for the visitors (xG for 1.11 and xG against the home side 1.33), yielding total xG = 2.57. Seasonal over 1.5 rates are 70% for Cerro and 67% for Guaraní (average 68.5%), and with total xG 2.57 I estimate the probability of Over 1.5 at approximately 77%. The home team scores on average 1.4 goals and produces 11.7 shots (4.2 on target) versus 1.22 goals and 9.56 shots (3.33 on target) for the visitors, which supports a scenario of at least two goals; additionally clean sheets occur only 30% and 33%. Over 2.5 occurs seasonally 40%/44% (average 42%) and although total xG 2.57 raises this to about 46%, it is not as strong a signal as Over 1.5; Over 3.5 is even less likely (~31%). Therefore the best line to play is Over 1.5, as it provides the strongest and most consistent quantitative signal.

Cerro Porteño led at the break in 40% of matches and won 50% of games this season, while Guaraní has only an 11% win rate, which provides a strong signal for a lead at the break and a home full-time victory. The hosts also have higher xG (1.31 vs 1.11), more shots on target (4.2 vs 3.33) and a seasonal goals-per-game average of 1.4 versus 1.22 for the visitors, indicating they create more scoring opportunities. Cerro frequently scores before half-time and late in matches (4 goals in minutes 31–45 and 6 goals in minutes 76–90), and they concede only 0.3 goals on average before the break compared to 0.56 conceded by Guaraní, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead. Guaraní, by contrast, are level at half-time in 56% of cases, so the second most important scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1); therefore 1/1 received the highest weight as the strongest signal.