Cerro vs Defensor Sporting: match statistics
Cerro vs Defensor Sporting: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Cerro played against Defensor Sporting in Primera División (Uruguay). The game was played on April 5, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Cerro has 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.60 points per game. Defensor Sporting has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 1.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Cerro scores 0.44 goals per game and allows 1.56. Defensor Sporting scores 0.78 and allows 0.67. Games in this league average 2.42 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 33% of Cerro's games and 44% of Defensor Sporting's. The Over 2.5 rates are 33% and 22%, compared with league averages of 50% for BTTS and 47% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Cerro has the higher season xG average, 1.34 to 1.28 per game. Cerro takes 11.7 shots per game, while Defensor Sporting takes 10.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Cerro leads at halftime in 0% of its games and scores 0.22 goals per game after halftime. Defensor Sporting leads at halftime in 0% and scores 0.33 after halftime.
When the teams score
Cerro's most productive scoring window is minutes 0-15 (1 goals). For Defensor Sporting, it is minutes 0-15 (2 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Primera División games average 2.42 goals. Both teams score in 50% of games, and 47% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Numbers favor Cerro in chance creation — at home the hosts average 10.8 shots, 4.4 on target, and 1.37 xG per game, while Defensor away records 8.8 shots, 2.2 on target and 1.09 xG. The visitors are better in the short term: in the last five matches Defensor averages 1.2 points per game (form: d l w d d), Cerro only 0.6 pts (form: l l l w l). Defensor’s main weakness is attacking output on the road — they fail to score in 60% of away matches versus 40% of home matches for the hosts — while Defensor concedes 1.55 xG away, compared to Cerro conceding 1.13 xG at home. In the last five fixtures Defensor have conceded 3 goals and Cerro 8, which shows the visitors can be defensively compact at times, but overall both teams average just 0.6 goals per game, so I expect a low-scoring tie with a minimal home-side edge.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I project No BTTS, as the home side records clean sheets in 50% of their matches and clean sheets occur in 57% of league fixtures. Both teams score infrequently — averaging 1.0 goals for Cerro and 0.6 for Defensor, with the last 5 matches showing home averages of 0.4 goals versus 0.6 for the visitors. In the last 5 games BTTS occurred in only 20% of Cerro’s matches and 40% of Defensor’s, indicating a trend toward one-sided scoring. Cerro posts higher offensive xG (1.53 vs 1.09 for Defensor) and more shots on target (4.0 vs 2.2), but conversion rates of 8% vs 7% and the high incidence of clean sheets suggest the offensive edge may not translate into both teams scoring. Based on this I estimate a 35% probability for BTTS and 65% for No BTTS, therefore I recommend a "No" (No BTTS / No Goal).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Calculated expected goals are 1.54 for Cerro (home xG 1.53 and xG against visitors 1.55 yield 1.54) and 1.25 for Defensor Sporting (away xG 1.09 and xG against hosts 1.41 yield 1.25), totalling 2.79 expected goals. Cerro averages 12.5 shots and 4.0 on target (conversion 8.0%), while Defensor averages 8.8 shots and 2.2 on target (conversion 7.0%), so the hosts clearly generate more chances. Seasonal rates, however, show a limited share of matches over 2.5 goals (Cerro 25%, Defensor 20%) and 0% over 3.5 goals for both teams, which limits the probability of a very high-scoring game. A Poisson model with λ=2.79 translates to approximately 77% for Over 1.5, ~53% for Over 2.5 and ~31% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest data signal is a play on Over 1.5. Additionally, the high share of matches with at least one goal (Over 0.5: Cerro 75%, Defensor 80%) confirms that Over 1.5 is the safer choice.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Cerro has a clear seasonal edge: they average 1.0 goals per game versus 0.6 for Defensor and record an average of 2.0 points per home match compared to 1.0 points for away teams. Both teams are frequently level at the break — Cerro were tied at half-time in 100% of matches (4 of 4), and Defensor in 80% (4 of 5), with HT goal averages of 0.5 for Cerro and 0.4 for Defensor; therefore a draw at half-time is the most likely state. xG and shot data reinforce this picture: home xG 1.53 versus 1.09 for the visitors, and 12.5 shots and 4.0 on target for Cerro compared to 8.8 and 2.2 for Defensor, suggesting greater home potential after the break. Cerro have kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches and concede 0.5 goals seasonally versus 0.8 for the away side, although in the last five matches Cerro have conceded an average of 1.6 goals, which lowers confidence; consequently the most probable scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a home win (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Cerro | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Defensor Sporting is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / game - Cerro · 1.2 pts / game - Defensor Sporting
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Defensor Sporting is 77% better for: goals scored per game.
0.44 goals / game - Cerro · 0.78 goals / game - Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting is 133% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.56 goals / game - Cerro · 0.67 goals / game - Defensor Sporting
Cerro scores in 44% of games (4 of 9 meczów), while Defensor Sporting keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 meczów).
Defensor Sporting scores in 56% of games (5 of 9 meczów), while Cerro keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Cerro
Over / Under - Defensor Sporting
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Defensor Sporting is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.67 pts / game - Cerro · 0.89 pts / game - Defensor Sporting
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Cerro - second-half results
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Defensor Sporting - second-half results
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Cerro | Liga | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.00 | 2.42 | ▼ 1.44 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 50% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 47% | ▼ 22% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 28% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 44% | 69% | ▼ 56% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 76% | ▼ 44% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Cerro's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 2 losses against Defensor Sporting. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 67% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
The Primera División match finished Cerro 1:0 Defensor Sporting. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Cerro and Defensor Sporting?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Cerro won 1, Defensor Sporting won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
Cerro score 0.44 goals per game on average and Defensor Sporting 0.78. The Primera División average is 2.42 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Cerro's matches and 44% of Defensor Sporting's.
What form are Cerro and Defensor Sporting in?
Over the last 5 games Cerro have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Defensor Sporting 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Cerro vs Defensor Sporting: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.