Changchun Yatai vs Nanjing City: match statistics

Changchun Yatai has a clear attacking edge at home: the hosts average 1.14 goals per home match versus Nanjing City’s 0.57 goals on the road, and the percentage of matches without a goal is only 14% for Changchun compared to 43% for Nanjing. The hosts also create better chances — on average 4.29 shots on target from 11.14 attempts with a shot conversion of 10%, while the visitors have only 2.29 shots on target from 11.57 attempts and a 5% conversion. Changchun’s defense is, however, vulnerable (on average 2.14 goals conceded per home game and a home goal difference of -7), whereas Nanjing concedes 1.14 goals on average away and has a slightly better goal difference (-4); xG indicates the difference in chance quality is not huge (home xG 1.34 vs away xG 1.18, xG against 1.41 vs 1.45). Recent form over the last five matches also favors the hosts — Changchun averages 1.4 points per game (D-W-L-W-L), while Nanjing only 0.6 points (L-L-W-L-L) — therefore the most likely outcome is a home win, with a moderate probability of a draw and a lower probability of an away win.

Comparing season-long and recent form shows Changchun with season BTTS 50% and last 5 matches BTTS 100%, while Nanjing has season BTTS 43% and last 5 BTTS 60% — this provides a strong, especially recent, signal for Both Teams To Score (BTTS - Yes). xG and chance-quality analysis indicates Changchun generates xG 1.46 per match, and opponents of Nanjing concede xG 1.45; Nanjing posts xG 1.18 versus Changchun’s xG against 1.04, so both sides create on average over 1 xG which favors goal scoring. Additionally Changchun averages 3.75 shots on target with a 10% conversion, while Nanjing has 2.29 SoT and 5% conversion, suggesting the home side is more efficient but the visitors still create chances. The counter-risk is that Nanjing fail to score in 43% of season matches and average 0.57 goals versus Changchun’s 1.25, which limits BTTS certainty; however Nanjing scored on average 1.0 goal in their last 5 matches, and Changchun conceded 2.2 goals on average in those 5. Weighing the strong Changchun signal (last5 BTTS 100%, 1.8 goals in last 5) and the moderate Nanjing signal (last5 BTTS 60% with 43% matches without a goal), I predict BTTS = Yes with probability 65% versus 35% for No.

The xG- and defensive-data model projects 1.46 expected goals for Changchun Yatai (xG_for 1.46 vs xG_against_away 1.45 → avg 1.46) and 1.11 for Nanjing City (xG_for 1.18 vs xG_against_home 1.04 → 1.11), totaling 2.57 goals. With lambda=2.57 the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is ~73%, consistent with seasonal Over1.5 rates: 63% for home teams and 57% for away teams. The hosts average 12.75 shots and 3.75 on target with a 10% conversion, versus 11.57 shots, 2.29 on target and 5% for the visitors — figures that increase the chance of early finishes. Over 2.5 has much weaker model support (~47%), and Over 3.5 even less (~26%), so the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5. Note also that seasonally hosts have 50% of matches Over 2.5 while visitors only 14%, which warrants caution on higher lines.

Changchun Yatai are the favorites: they have won 50% of matches this season and score an average of 1.25 goals per game, whereas Nanjing City win only 14% and average 0.57 goals per game. The home side lead at the break in 38% of matches and score an average of 0.88 goals by half-time versus 0.43 for the visitors, so Changchun’s advantage is already evident in the first half. This is supported by home xG of 1.46 versus 1.18 for the visitors, lower xG against of 1.04 vs 1.45, more on-target shots 3.75 vs 2.29 and a higher conversion rate 10% vs 5%, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead. Nanjing have only 14% clean sheets this season and a weaker points-per-game average 0.71 vs the hosts’ 1.63, so mounting a turnaround after half-time will be statistically difficult. Therefore the most likely scenario is the home side leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1) — I assign it a 30% probability, with lower ratings for X/1 (18%) and X/X (14%).