Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Sarasota Paradise: match statistics
Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Sarasota Paradise: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Chattanooga Red Wolves played against Sarasota Paradise in USL League One (United States). The game was played on May 9, 2026. Final score: 4:1.
Recent form
Chattanooga Red Wolves has 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.00 points per game. Sarasota Paradise has 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses, with 0.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Chattanooga Red Wolves scores 1.25 goals per game and allows 1.50. Sarasota Paradise scores 0.88 and allows 1.63. Games in this league average 2.75 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 75% of Chattanooga Red Wolves's games and 50% of Sarasota Paradise's. The Over 2.5 rates are 75% and 50%, compared with league averages of 56% for BTTS and 56% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Sarasota Paradise has the higher season xG average, 1.42 to 1.39 per game. Chattanooga Red Wolves takes 11.3 shots per game, while Sarasota Paradise takes 12.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Chattanooga Red Wolves leads at halftime in 25% of its games and scores 0.50 goals per game after halftime. Sarasota Paradise leads at halftime in 25% and scores 0.38 after halftime.
When the teams score
Chattanooga Red Wolves's most productive scoring window is minutes 16-30 (2 goals). For Sarasota Paradise, it is minutes 61-75 (3 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
USL League One games average 2.75 goals. Both teams score in 56% of games, and 56% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorite is Chattanooga Red Wolves: at home they record an average xG of 1.78 versus the visitors' 1.05 xG on the road and attempt an average of 13 shots per match compared to Sarasota's 8.5. Defensively the hosts look better — they concede an average of 1.00 goal at home, while Sarasota concedes 2.00 goals away and has conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches versus 7 for Chattanooga. Both teams, however, have clear finishing issues: the hosts average 0 goals in home matches, the visitors 0 goals away, and both sides have scored 3 goals in their last 5 fixtures. Form is poor on both sides — Chattanooga in the last 5 matches is 0-1-4 with 0.2 pts/match, and Sarasota 1-0-4 with 0.6 pts/match. Considering the advantage in quality of chances (xG 1.78 vs 1.05), higher shot volume (13 vs 8.5) and the better defensive profile (xG against 0.80 vs 1.76), I forecast a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes because Chattanooga has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% versus the league average of 56%, and although Sarasota shows 0% in season-long BTTS data, both teams recorded BTTS in 40% of their last 5 matches. xG and shot metrics indicate the hosts create more (xG 1.54, 14.17 shots and 4.17 on target), while the visitors still post xG 1.05 and 8.5 shots per game, so both sides are capable of producing at least one goal. Both teams have conceded frequently over the last 5 fixtures: Chattanooga conceded 7 (1.4 avg), Sarasota 10 (2.0 avg), which increases the likelihood that both will score. Additionally, seasonal goal figures (hosts 5 scored and 6 conceded, visitors 7 scored and 13 conceded) and the visitors’ lack of clean sheets (0% seasonally) support the BTTS scenario; on this basis I assess BTTS probability at 65% vs 35% and recommend Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Chattanooga (xG_for 1.54 vs opponent xG_against 1.76) and 1.13 for Sarasota (xG_for 1.05 vs home xG_against 1.21), totaling 2.78, slightly above the league average of 2.75. A Poisson estimate for a total of 2.78 yields roughly a 77% probability for Over 1.5 (P≥2), about 53% for Over 2.5 (P≥3), and approximately 30% for Over 3.5 (P≥4). The hosts average 14.17 shots and 4.17 on target per match versus Sarasota’s 8.5 shots and 1.5 on target, increasing the likelihood of goals for Chattanooga. Season-long data show 67% of the hosts’ matches finish Over 1.5, while Sarasota’s matches are 100% Over 1.5, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side Over) as the strongest selection.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest scenario is X/1 (draw at Half-Time, Chattanooga win by Full-Time): I assign it a 34% probability. Chattanooga led at the break in 33% of matches and drew in 50% of their games, while Sarasota has not won any match this season (0% wins) and averages 0.0 goals per game. The home side has a higher average xG (1.54 versus 1.05 for the visitors), averages 4.17 shots on target compared to 1.5 for the opponents, and scores 0.67 goals in the first half (visitors 0.0), which suggests a growing home advantage after the break. Therefore, besides X/1 (34%) I also give a 24% probability to 1/1 and 14% to X/X, treating the remaining outcomes as unlikely.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | Sarasota Paradise | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 27% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Chattanooga Red Wolves is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / game - Chattanooga Red Wolves · 0.6 pts / game - Sarasota Paradise
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Chattanooga Red Wolves is 42% better for: goals scored per game.
1.25 goals / game - Chattanooga Red Wolves · 0.88 goals / game - Sarasota Paradise
Chattanooga Red Wolves is 9% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.5 goals / game - Chattanooga Red Wolves · 1.63 goals / game - Sarasota Paradise
Chattanooga Red Wolves scores in 75% of games (3 of 4 meczów), while Sarasota Paradise keeps a clean sheet in 13% (1 of 8 meczów).
Sarasota Paradise scores in 63% of games (5 of 8 meczów), while Chattanooga Red Wolves keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 4 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Chattanooga Red Wolves
Over / Under - Sarasota Paradise
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Sarasota Paradise is 38% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / game - Chattanooga Red Wolves · 1.38 pts / game - Sarasota Paradise
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Chattanooga Red Wolves - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 25% of games and wins 25%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Sarasota Paradise - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 25% of games and wins 25%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.9 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 75% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 25% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 75% |
| No goal | 50% | 50% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -7 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Chattanooga Red Wolves
Sarasota Paradise
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL League One).
Teams vs league
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | Liga | Sarasota Paradise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.75 | 2.75 | ▼ 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 75% | 56% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 75% | 56% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 25% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 73% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | • 75% | 76% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Sarasota Paradise?
The USL League One match finished Chattanooga Red Wolves 4:1 Sarasota Paradise. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Sarasota Paradise?
Chattanooga Red Wolves score 1.25 goals per game on average and Sarasota Paradise 0.88. The USL League One average is 2.75 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 75% of Chattanooga Red Wolves's matches and 50% of Sarasota Paradise's.
What form are Chattanooga Red Wolves and Sarasota Paradise in?
Over the last 5 games Chattanooga Red Wolves have a 1-1-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Sarasota Paradise 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Sarasota Paradise?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.