Chiangrai United vs Chonburi: match statistics

Chiangrai United remain unbeaten in their last 5 matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws to collect 11 points in total. The hosts have scored 5 goals during this period, but their biggest strength is their defense: they have conceded just 1 goal, an average of 0.2 per match. Chonburi have scored 7 goals in their last five outings, but have lost 2 matches and conceded as many as 9 goals, averaging 1.8 per game. The difference in current form is clear, with Chiangrai averaging 2.2 points per match compared with just 1.0 for Chonburi. The hosts’ solid defense and the visitors’ problems in limiting goals conceded point to a greater likelihood of a Chiangrai United victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Chiangrai United have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while both teams scored in only 20% of those fixtures. Chonburi have averaged 1.4 goals and created chances worth 2.02 xG, but they have also lost 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded as many as 1.8 goals per game. The hosts are in better form, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five league matches, while Chonburi have a run of 2 defeats, 2 draws and just 1 win. Chiangrai have averaged 1.0 goal, which, combined with the visitors' very poor defensive record, gives them a realistic route to victory without Chonburi finding the net. Although Chonburi's BTTS rate was 60% in their last 5 matches, the hosts' exceptionally low number of goals conceded provides stronger support for a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Chiangrai United have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, with opponents scoring in only 20% of those appearances. Chonburi did concede as many as 1.8 goals per match over the same period, raising the home side’s projection to 1.35 goals, but they should themselves have limited scope for effective attacking play against such a solid defense. None of Chiangrai’s last five matches went over 2.5 goals, while this occurred in 60% of Chonburi’s games. Chonburi’s xG was a high 2.02, but they scored only 1.4 goals per match in reality, and the home defense provides a strong argument against a four-goal scenario. The projected total of 2.20 goals clearly supports Under 3.5, which remains the safest line.

Chiangrai United are in significantly better form: they have averaged 2.2 points per game over their last five matches, won 60% of them and remain unbeaten, while Chonburi have averaged 1.0 point and lost 40% of their matches. The first half should be cautious, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their recent fixtures, scoring just 0.4 goals per game before half-time and conceding only 0.2. After the interval, Chiangrai’s advantage should become increasingly evident: they have not conceded a single goal in the second halves of their last five matches, while Chonburi conceded an average of 1.4 goals after the break during that period. The visitors suffered a second-half defeat in as many as 60% of their matches, whereas the hosts won the second half in 60% of cases. The most logical scenario is therefore a draw at half-time followed by a Chiangrai United victory: X/1.