Chicago Fire vs Atlanta United FC: match statistics

Chicago Fire have a clear home advantage: at home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game, with an average xG of 1.57 and 5.33 shots on target. Atlanta United are almost barren away — 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on average per away match, xG 0.86, just 2 shots on target and 100% of matches without a goal (FTS 100%). In the last 5 fixtures Chicago scored 7 goals and hold a 3-1-1 record (PPG 2.0), while Atlanta have 1 win in their last 5 and PPG 0.8, conceding 9 goals in that period. Additionally, hosts have 67% wins and 67% clean sheets at home, whereas visitors have 0% wins and 0% clean sheets on the road; the superiority in shot conversion (12% vs 0%) and higher xG strongly favor Chicago.

Analysis indicates BTTS - Yes: Chicago has a season BTTS rate of 75% and at home averages 1.5 goals scored while conceding 1.75 per match, whereas Atlanta concedes 2.0 goals on the road and has not recorded a clean sheet away (0%), increasing the likelihood of a home goal. Atlanta has 0.0 goals on the road for the season, but in the last 5 matches scored 6 goals (1.2 avg) and has BTTS of 60% in that span, while Chicago had BTTS of 40% in their last 5 and conceded only 3 goals (0.6 avg), which is a mixed signal but shows Atlanta can score. Chicago creates more chances: attacking xG 1.17 vs Atlanta 0.86, on average 10 vs 8 shots and 4.0 vs 2.0 shots on target, increasing the probability that the home side will convert at least one opportunity. Atlanta’s poor defense (11 goals conceded this season and 2.0 conceded on the road) and the lack of away clean sheets (0%) argue that the opponent will concede; the league records BTTS 53%, which further supports the both-teams-to-score scenario. Considering Chicago’s 75% BTTS, Atlanta’s 0% away clean sheets, Atlanta’s 60% BTTS in the last 5, and Chicago’s advantage in xG and shots, I assign 68% to 'yes' and 32% to 'no'.

I estimated expected goals at 1.33 for Chicago and 1.07 for Atlanta (total 2.40). Offensive xG are 1.17 for Chicago and 0.86 for Atlanta, and over the last 5 matches xG rose to 1.40 and 1.09 respectively, supporting a higher home potential. Chicago scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches (1.4) and conceded 3 (0.6), while Atlanta has 6 scored and 9 conceded in the last 5 (1.2/1.8); shot stats 10/4 vs 8/2 indicate Chicago’s advantage. With an expected total of 2.40 the Poisson model gives P(Over1.5)≈69%, P(Over2.5)≈43% and P(Over3.5)≈22%; additionally seasonal Over1.5 rates are 75% for Chicago and 100% for Atlanta, which further supports Over 1.5 as the best line to play.

The most likely scenario is X/1 (draw at half-time, Chicago win at full-time) with a probability of 24%. In Chicago’s last 5 matches they were level at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5), and they also won 60% of their matches (3 of 5), which suggests frequent turnarounds after a draw at the break. The home side shows superior offensive metrics: xG 1.17 versus Atlanta’s 0.86, on average 4 shots on target vs 2 and a conversion rate of 15% vs 0%, and they have scored 2 goals in minutes 46–60 and 2 goals in minutes 61–75 (4 second-half goals in total), which increases the chance of scoring after the break. Atlanta’s away season average goals is 0.0 and they have only a 20% win rate in their last 5 matches, so the visitors rarely produce a turnaround, hence X/1 as the strongest signal (24%) with 1/1 as the main alternative (22%).