Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua: match statistics

Shanghai Shenhua have the clear attacking edge: away from home, they average 1.83 goals with an xG of 1.45, while Chongqing Tongliang Long record 1.33 goals and an xG of 1.22 at home. The visitors also attempt more shots per match (13.17 vs. 10.83) and produce more shots on target (4.83 vs. 3.5), with a conversion rate of 14% compared to the hosts’ 12%. Chongqing are nevertheless more solid defensively at home, conceding an average of 1.17 goals and allowing an xG of 0.99, but they have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and scored just 3 goals during that run. Shenhua have won 2 of their last 5 matches and scored 11 goals in that period, which, despite conceding 12, points to a more realistic chance of securing victory. A draw remains possible, as the hosts draw 42% of their home matches, but the visitors’ advantage in chance creation points to outcome 2.

The seasonal profiles of both teams strongly support goals at both ends: BTTS occurred in 69% of Chongqing Tongliang Long matches and 67% of Shanghai Shenhua fixtures, compared with the league average of 64%. The hosts score an average of 2.08 goals per match, while the visitors average 1.83, with low clean-sheet rates of 15% and 17%, respectively. Shanghai Shenhua have been particularly vulnerable defensively in their last five outings, conceding an average of 2.4 goals, while Chongqing produced an average of 1.18 xG. The main risk to the pick is the hosts' poor recent finishing, having scored only 3 goals in their last five matches and recorded BTTS in just 40% of them; however, their opponents conceded 12 goals during that period. The visitors, meanwhile, scored 11 goals across their last five matches with an average xG of 1.94, so the most likely scenario remains that both teams will score — BTTS - Yes.

The seasonal profile of both teams clearly favors goals: the hosts have been involved in matches featuring at least 2 goals in 92% of cases, while the visitors have done so in 83%. Chongqing average 2.08 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per match, whereas Shanghai score 1.83 goals per game and concede 1.75. The xG data also points to an open game, with the hosts creating an average of 2.03 xG and the visitors 1.45 xG, while their opponents record approximately 1.47-1.49 xG. Chongqing’s recent form has been weaker in attack, averaging 0.6 goals across their last five matches, but Shanghai have scored 2.2 goals per game over the same period while also conceding 2.4. Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, as even with a conservative estimate of 3.05 expected goals, the two-goal line has by far the highest probability.

A draw at half-time followed by a Shanghai Shenhua victory is the most likely outcome, as Chongqing have been level at the break in 80% of their last five matches and have not led on any occasion. The hosts are also in significantly weaker offensive form, averaging just 0.6 goals per match in their last five outings compared with 2.2 for the Shanghai side. After the break, the visitors have averaged 1.4 goals over their last five matches, while Chongqing have scored just 0.2; across the season, Shanghai have won the second half in 50% of their matches, compared with 31% for the hosts. The closing stages are also significant: Chongqing have conceded 10 goals between the 76th and 90th minutes, while Shanghai have conceded only 3. Although the hosts have more often held a lead at the break over the course of the season, current form and the visitors’ second-half advantage more strongly support the X/2 scenario.