Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: match statistics

I back a Shanghai Shenhua win based on clear home attacking superiority: average 2.6 goals scored per home match and average xG 2.23 with 19.8 shots and 8 on target, versus Chongqing away who average just 0.75 goals and xG 0.64 with 5.5 shots and 2.25 on target. Hosts have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches and hold a home run of 'wwwwl' (4 wins, 1 loss), while visitors in their last 5 have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, scoring 6 goals. Chongqing’s away defense is nevertheless compact — only 0.5 goals conceded per away match and 50% clean sheets — which may limit the margin of a home win; Shanghai concede 1.4 at home with opponent xG against 1.37. Additionally, hosts have no matches at home without scoring (0%) and a 13% conversion rate from a high volume of chances, while visitors convert at 14% but generate far fewer opportunities. Consequently I favor Shanghai due to superior quantity and quality of chances (xG 2.23 vs 0.64 and 8 vs 2.25 shots on target), but the visitors’ solid defense raises the draw probability — therefore I assess 65% chance for a home win, 18% for a draw and 17% for an away win.

I forecast BTTS - No with a probability of 62% vs 38% for Yes. Shanghai averages 1.67 goals per game (xG 1.28) and records 4.5 shots on target; in the last 5 matches they averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Chongqing averages just 0.75 goals (xG 0.64), only 2.25 shots on target and keep a clean sheet in 50% of appearances, which significantly limits their scoring chances. Simple xG aggregation yields expected goals of ~1.27 for Shanghai and ~0.74 for Chongqing, translating to roughly a 37–40% probability that both teams score. Additionally, seasonal indicators diverge (Shanghai BTTS 67% vs Chongqing BTTS 25%, league 57%), and the visitors’ defensive edge combined with their low attacking efficiency makes the No Goal option the strongest data-driven signal.

xG and goal average analysis indicates a home advantage: Shanghai Shenhua has xG 1.28 and scores 1.67 goals per game on average, while Chongqing Tongliang Long has xG 0.64 and concedes 0.5 goals per game on average. Averaging the home xG (1.28) with xG against the visitors (1.26) yields an expected 1.27 goals for Shanghai, and combining the visitors’ xG (0.64) with xG against the home side (0.83) yields 0.74 for Chongqing — the total is 2.01 goals. A Poisson model at this total gives roughly a 60% probability for Over 1.5 goals, about 33% for Over 2.5 and around 14–15% for Over 3.5, which aligns with seasonal indicators: Shanghai has 83% of matches Over 1.5 and 33% Over 2.5, while Chongqing has only 25% of matches Over 1.5. In the last 5 fixtures Shanghai scored 11 goals (2.2 avg), while Chongqing scored 6 and conceded 4 in that period (1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded on average), so the home side’s attacking form supports the low-threshold Over projection. Consequently the safest and strongest play appears to be Over 1.5: with an expected 2.01 goals and Shanghai’s 83% rate of matches Over 1.5, this line provides the clearest signal.

At half-time a draw appears most likely: the home side draw at the break in 67% of their matches this season, while the visitors do so in 75%, with the visitors keeping a clean sheet at half-time in 100% of games. In the hosts' last five matches they led at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5), showing they can establish a lead before the interval when in form. After the restart the advantage shifts to the home team — they score an average of 1.17 goals in the second half versus 0.25 for the visitors, and their second-half xG is 1.28 compared to 0.64 for their opponents, indicating higher quality chances created. Additionally, Shanghai Shenhua register on average 4.5 shots on target and 11.0 shots per match versus 2.25 and 5.5 for Chongqing, with conversion rates of 15% vs 14%, so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).