Chrobry Głogów vs Warta Poznań: match statistics

Warta Poznań have greater attacking potential away from home: they average 2.25 goals from 1.68 xG, while Chrobry score just 0.5 goals at home despite recording 1.47 xG. The visitors average 5.75 shots on target per match, compared with only 1.5 for the hosts, indicating a significant difference in finishing quality. Chrobry do enjoy 58% possession, but they have failed to win either of their two home matches and have not kept a clean sheet, conceding an average of one goal per game. Warta are also vulnerable defensively, allowing an average of 2 goals and 1.43 xG away from home, meaning the hosts have a realistic chance of scoring. However, the visitors’ away goal difference stands at +1, while their 16% shot-conversion rate supports a slight lean towards a Warta victory.

The latest form clearly points toward goals at both ends: Chrobry recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Warta did so in 60%. During this period, both teams averaged 1.8 goals scored per game, with Chrobry conceding 1.2 and Warta as many as 1.8. Their attacking potential is confirmed by the xG figures from their last five appearances: 1.53 for the home side and 1.82 for the visitors, while both defenses allowed opponents approximately 1.3–1.52 xG. Warta also have BTTS in 75% of their league matches and score an average of 2.25 goals, although their defense concedes 2.0 goals per game. Despite incomplete seasonal data for Chrobry, their current results and the high number of chances created by both sides make BTTS - Yes more likely than BTTS - No. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically indicate a 0-0 draw or that neither team will score.

Both teams averaged 1.8 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Chrobry conceded 1.2 goals per game during this period, compared with as many as 1.8 for Warta. Warta created chances worth an average of 1.82 xG, while Chrobry recorded 1.53 xG, indicating genuine goal-scoring potential for both teams. In their last five appearances, matches featuring at least three goals accounted for 60% of Chrobry’s games and 80% of Warta’s, compared with a league average of 54%. Additionally, 80% of Chrobry’s recent matches and 60% of Warta’s ended with both teams scoring. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.15 goals provides a substantial margin above this line, even with less efficient finishing.

In their last five matches, Chrobry have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Warta, despite the same 1.8 scoring average, have allowed opponents to score 1.8 goals per game. The hosts led at the break in 40% of their last five appearances and were behind at half-time in only 20%, whereas Warta went into the interval trailing in as many as 60% of their matches. After the break, Chrobry still look more stable: they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, compared with Warta’s 0.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. Warta do possess attacking potential, as reflected by their season-to-date averages of 2.25 goals scored and 5.75 shots on target, but they also concede 2.0 goals per match. The strongest scenario is therefore Chrobry leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage until full-time, although the high goal figures in both teams’ recent form reduce confidence in this outcome.