Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town: match statistics
Connah's Quay presents impressive home form with 64% wins and only 18% losses at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 2.55 goals per match at home, while maintaining a possession advantage of 59%. Caernarfon Town, despite solid away form (42% wins), is characterized by a high percentage of draws (42%), indicating difficulties in breaking down rivals on the road. The key factor is the difference in offensive efficiency – the hosts have a higher average xG (2.08 vs 1.47) and better shot conversion (17% vs 14%). The recent form of both teams (Connah's Quay: 2.2 pts/match vs Caernarfon: 1.6 pts/match) additionally speaks in favor of the hosts. Taking all statistics into account, I expect a victory for Connah's Quay, although the solid defense of the visitors (1.17 goals conceded away) may make this a close encounter with the possibility of a draw.
Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Connah's Quay played against Caernarfon Town in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The game was played on February 6, 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Recent form
Connah's Quay has 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 2.20 points per game. Caernarfon Town has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 1.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Connah's Quay scores 2.17 goals per game and allows 1.17. Caernarfon Town scores 1.91 and allows 1.39. Games in this league average 3.09 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 65% of Connah's Quay's games and 70% of Caernarfon Town's. The Over 2.5 rates are 78% and 61%, compared with league averages of 53% for BTTS and 59% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Connah's Quay has the higher season xG average, 1.81 to 1.56 per game. Connah's Quay takes 13.6 shots per game, while Caernarfon Town takes 12.7.
First-half and second-half trends
Connah's Quay leads at halftime in 43% of its games and scores 1.26 goals per game after halftime. Caernarfon Town leads at halftime in 26% and scores 1.30 after halftime.
When the teams score
Connah's Quay's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (12 goals). For Caernarfon Town, it is minutes 61-75 (11 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Welsh Premier League games average 3.09 goals. Both teams score in 53% of games, and 59% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 1 away win. Those games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Connah's Quay presents impressive home form with 64% wins and only 18% losses at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 2.55 goals per match at home, while maintaining a possession advantage of 59%. Caernarfon Town, despite solid away form (42% wins), is characterized by a high percentage of draws (42%), indicating difficulties in breaking down rivals on the road. The key factor is the difference in offensive efficiency – the hosts have a higher average xG (2.08 vs 1.47) and better shot conversion (17% vs 14%). The recent form of both teams (Connah's Quay: 2.2 pts/match vs Caernarfon: 1.6 pts/match) additionally speaks in favor of the hosts. Taking all statistics into account, I expect a victory for Connah's Quay, although the solid defense of the visitors (1.17 goals conceded away) may make this a close encounter with the possibility of a draw.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Connah's Quay | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 45% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Connah's Quay is 83% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / game - Connah's Quay · 1.2 pts / game - Caernarfon Town
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Connah's Quay is 14% better for: goals scored per game.
2.17 goals / game - Connah's Quay · 1.91 goals / game - Caernarfon Town
Connah's Quay is 19% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.17 goals / game - Connah's Quay · 1.39 goals / game - Caernarfon Town
Connah's Quay scores in 91% of games (21 of 23 meczów), while Caernarfon Town keeps a clean sheet in 17% (4 of 23 meczów).
Caernarfon Town scores in 83% of games (19 of 23 meczów), while Connah's Quay keeps a clean sheet in 30% (7 of 23 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Connah's Quay
Over / Under - Caernarfon Town
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Connah's Quay is 45% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.7 pts / game - Connah's Quay · 1.17 pts / game - Caernarfon Town
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Connah's Quay - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 43% of games and wins 61%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Caernarfon Town - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 26% of games and wins 39%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Connah's Quay
Caernarfon Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Connah's Quay | Liga | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.35 | 3.09 | ▲ 3.30 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 65% | 53% | ▲ 70% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 78% | 59% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 30% | 28% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 83% | 77% | ▼ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 91% | 75% | ▲ 87% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Record from Connah's Quay's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss against Caernarfon Town. Games average 3.50 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Connah's Quay 1:1 Caernarfon Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Connah's Quay and Caernarfon Town?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Connah's Quay won 0, Caernarfon Town won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town?
Connah's Quay score 2.17 goals per game on average and Caernarfon Town 1.91. The Welsh Premier League average is 3.09 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 59% of games. Both teams score in 65% of Connah's Quay's matches and 70% of Caernarfon Town's.
What form are Connah's Quay and Caernarfon Town in?
Over the last 5 games Connah's Quay have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Caernarfon Town 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town?
The statistical background for Connah's Quay vs Caernarfon Town — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.