Connah's Quay vs Penybont: match statistics
Connah's Quay displays significantly better home form with a 54% win rate and an impressive goal difference of 56:33 this season. The hosts score an average of 2.31 goals per match at home with just 0% of matches failing to score, indicating an effective offense. Penybont is in terrible form with only 0.2 points per match in their last five games and a series of four defeats, conceding as many as 12 goals. The visitors have a negative goal difference away from home (-9) and a high concession rate (2.21 goals per match), which, combined with poor efficiency (1.57 goals on average), puts them in a difficult position. Considering the hosts' statistical advantage in possession (57% vs 48%), xG (2.03 vs 1.29), and the current form of both teams, a Connah's Quay victory is the most likely outcome of this match.
Connah's Quay vs Penybont: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Connah's Quay play Penybont in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match date is 21 March 2026 at 15:30. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Connah's Quay: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Penybont: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Connah's Quay scores 1.91 and concedes 1.19 goals per match. Penybont scores 1.21 and concedes 1.44. League average: 2.87 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Connah's Quay 69%, Penybont 38%. Over 2.5: Connah's Quay 69%, Penybont 41%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Connah's Quay has higher xG: 1.74 vs 1.40. Connah's Quay: 12.8 shots per match, Penybont: 10.3.
Match halves
Connah's Quay: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 1.09. Penybont: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.79.
Goals by minute
Connah's Quay: 76-90+ (15 goals). Penybont: 46-60 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 2.87 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
3 H2H matches: 2-1-0. Average goals 1.67, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Connah's Quay displays significantly better home form with a 54% win rate and an impressive goal difference of 56:33 this season. The hosts score an average of 2.31 goals per match at home with just 0% of matches failing to score, indicating an effective offense. Penybont is in terrible form with only 0.2 points per match in their last five games and a series of four defeats, conceding as many as 12 goals. The visitors have a negative goal difference away from home (-9) and a high concession rate (2.21 goals per match), which, combined with poor efficiency (1.57 goals on average), puts them in a difficult position. Considering the hosts' statistical advantage in possession (57% vs 48%), xG (2.03 vs 1.29), and the current form of both teams, a Connah's Quay victory is the most likely outcome of this match.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Connah's Quay | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 46% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Connah's Quay is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Connah's Quay · 1 pts / match - Penybont
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Connah's Quay is 58% better for: goals scored per match.
1.91 goals / match - Connah's Quay · 1.21 goals / match - Penybont
Connah's Quay is 21% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.19 goals / match - Connah's Quay · 1.44 goals / match - Penybont
Connah's Quay scores in 88% of matches (28 of 32 matches), while Penybont keeps a clean sheet in 38% (13 of 34 matches).
Penybont scores in 59% of matches (20 of 34 matches), while Connah's Quay keeps a clean sheet in 25% (8 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Connah's Quay
Over / Under — Penybont
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Connah's Quay is 61% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.66 pts / match - Connah's Quay · 1.03 pts / match - Penybont
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Connah's Quay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Penybont - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (11 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Connah's Quay
Penybont
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Connah's Quay | Liga | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.09 | 2.87 | ▼ 2.65 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 69% | 50% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 69% | 53% | ▼ 41% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 29% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 73% | ▼ 59% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 75% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Connah's Quay 2 - 1 - 0 Penybont. Average goals 1.67, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Connah's Quay 2:1 Penybont. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Connah's Quay and Penybont?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Connah's Quay won 2, Penybont won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
Connah's Quay score 1.91 goals per game on average and Penybont 1.21. The Welsh Premier League average is 2.87 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 69% of Connah's Quay's matches and 38% of Penybont's.
What form are Connah's Quay and Penybont in?
Over the last 5 games Connah's Quay have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Penybont 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
The statistical background for Connah's Quay vs Penybont — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.