Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal: match statistics

Coquimbo Unido are the favorites: at home they generate on average xG 1.71 and register 17 shots per match (3.67 on target), while Cobresal away posts xG 0.84 and only 8.67 shots (3 on target). The hosts concede on average 1.00 goal at home, whereas the visitors concede as many as 2.67 goals away, which clearly favors Coquimbo’s defensive superiority. The hosts’ efficiency is however low — 6% conversion and 67% of home matches without scoring — while Cobresal has 15% conversion and 0% clean-sheetless matches away, so they can capitalize on few chances. In the last 5 matches Coquimbo averaged 1.2 points per game (form in last 5: W L L W L), while Cobresal only 0.4 points (D L D L L) and have not won away (0% wins). Considering the higher xG and superiority in chances (17 vs 8.67) and the visitors’ poor defensive results, I tip a home win, although both teams have potential to score.

Statistical analysis indicates a strong BTTS scenario: Coquimbo has a seasonal BTTS of 50% and Cobresal 100%, with the last 5 matches at 40% and 80% respectively. Cobresal has kept 0% clean sheets and concedes on average 2.67 goals per match seasonally and 2.4 in the last five, while Coquimbo concedes 2.0 seasonally and 1.2 in the last 5 matches — a clear signal that both teams frequently allow goals. Coquimbo produces xG 1.79 with an average of 5.75 shots on target and 16.25 total shots, and Cobresal concedes opponents’ xG 1.92, suggesting the hosts have realistic chances to score. Meanwhile Cobresal’s offensive xG is 0.84, but its high conversion rate of 15% and 10 goals scored this season show it can turn limited chances into goals. Given Coquimbo’s 50% matches over 2.5 and 50% over 2.5 with BTTS, and Cobresal’s 67%/67% in these categories, I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 85% versus 15% for No.

Based on xG data and average goals conceded, I project about 1.86 goals for Coquimbo (home xG 1.79 vs Cobresal average xG conceded 1.92) and 1.20 goals for Cobresal (away xG 0.84 vs Coquimbo average xG conceded 1.55), totaling approximately 3.06 goals. A Poisson model with an expected goals total of 3.06 indicates ~81% probability for Over 1.5 goals, ~59% for Over 2.5 and ~37% for Over 3.5. Additionally, both teams concede a lot — Coquimbo 2.0 and Cobresal 2.67 on average this season — and season Over 2.5 rates are 50% (Coquimbo) and 67% (Cobresal), which supports a higher-scoring outcome. In attack Coquimbo generates 16.25 shots with 5.75 on target versus Cobresal’s 8.67 shots and 3.0 on target, so the home side creates the majority of chances, favoring at least two goals in the match. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (highest probability ~81%), hence the recommendation to back the Over 1.5 line.

Coquimbo has a clear advantage in chance creation: xG 1.79 vs 0.84, on average 16.25 shots to 8.67 and 5.75 shots on target to 3.0 for the visitors. At home the hosts average 1.5 goals and 1.5 points per match, while Cobresal extracts only 0.33 points from away games and has 0% away wins. A strong half-time signal is that Coquimbo led at the break in 50% of matches, whereas Cobresal never led at the break away and were trailing at half-time in 67% of their away matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_home=50.0; leadingAtHTPercentage_away=0.0; trailingAtHTPercentage_away=67.0). Both defenses are vulnerable — Coquimbo concedes 2.0 goals per game and Cobresal 2.67 — and Cobresal have 100% of away games with both teams scoring, so I expect goals at both ends; however the xG and SOT advantage (1.79 vs 0.84; 5.75 vs 3.0) points to a home win. Consequently the most likely scenario is Coquimbo leading at half-time and the hosts winning (1/1), therefore I pick 1/1 as the highest-probability HT/FT selection.