Çorum Belediyespor vs Keçiörengücü: match statistics

Çorum Belediyespor are the favorites: at home they have won 63% of matches, have 21 wins this season and a home goal difference of +20, averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game. In home fixtures their average xG is 1.73 versus an xG against of 0.88, and hosts register 14.68 shots and 5.32 on target per match (compared to visitors’ 11.58 shots and 4.47 on target away). Keçiörengücü have more goals this season (73) and a higher shot conversion rate (15% vs Çorum’s 12%), but they concede 1.47 goals per away match on average and have only 16% clean sheets on the road. Form over the last 5 matches is comparable — hosts 2 wins and 3 draws, 10 scored and 4 conceded; visitors 3W-1D-1L, 7 scored and 3 conceded — however Çorum’s defensive advantage at home is clear. Considering superior game control (possession 60% vs 46%), better xG (1.73 vs 1.34) and a significantly lower average goals conceded at home (0.74 vs 1.47), I estimate a 60% probability of a home win, 22% for a draw and 18% for an away win.

Seasonal indicators favor BTTS: hosts have BTTS in 58% of matches, visitors in 68%, averaging 63%, clearly above the league mean of 51%. xG analysis shows Çorum’s attack xG 1.69 and Keçiörengücü’s defense xG against 1.34, yielding expected home goals around 1.52; conversely visitors have attack xG 1.34 and home defense xG against 1.07, giving expected away goals around 1.20. A Poisson model suggests probability of scoring at least one goal of ~78% for hosts and ~70% for guests (BTTS roughly 55%). There are counter-signals: hosts keep a clean sheet in 42% of matches, guests only 16%, so Çorum has a real chance of a clean sheet. Last 5 matches present a mixed picture — hosts have BTTS in 80% of last 5, visitors in 40% — but both teams create chances (avg 15.11 and 11.58 shots; 5.53 and 4.47 shots on target) and have similar shot conversion 14% vs 15%. Balancing these data (seasonal 58%/68%, xG-Poisson ~55% and clear home attacking edge) leads me to back 'BTTS - Yes' with a 60% probability vs 40% for 'No'.

Based on xG: Çorum generates 1.69 xG on average while Keçiörengücü concedes 1.34 xG, translating to ~1.52 expected goals for the home side; Keçiörengücü posts 1.34 xG in attack against 1.07 xG conceded by Çorum, i.e. ~1.20 expected goals for the away side, totaling ~2.72 expected goals. With total xG = 2.72, a Poisson distribution yields probability of Over 1.5 around 75%, Over 2.5 around 51% and Over 3.5 around 30%. Seasonal rates confirm this signal: Çorum records Over1.5 in 79% of matches and Over2.5 in 68%, Keçiörengücü 68% and 53% respectively (averaging ~74% for Over1.5 and ~60.5% for Over2.5). Additionally both teams have high BTTS rates: 58% for Çorum and 68% for Keçiörengücü (average 63%), and in the last 5 matches Çorum scored 10 goals and conceded 4, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals. Therefore the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5 (the over side at line 1.5) with an estimated probability of ~75%.

The hosts led at the break in 47% of matches (9 times) and score an average of 1.21 goals in the first half while conceding only 0.32, giving them a clear advantage at the start. Over 90 minutes Çorum average 2.11 goals scored and 0.79 conceded, while Keçiörengücü average 1.74 scored and 1.47 conceded; the hosts’ xG is 1.69 versus 1.34 for the visitors, and average shots on target are 5.53 vs 4.47, corroborating the higher quality of the hosts’ chances. Seasonal distributions show the hosts win 47% of matches, draw 37% and lose 16%, whereas the visitors have 37% wins, 26% draws and 37% losses, positioning Çorum as the favorite. Given the 47% probability of a lead at the break and the advantage in xG and shots, the most likely scenario is a Half-Time/Full-Time lead and win for the hosts (1/1), which I assign a 34% probability to; smaller but notable alternatives are X/X (21%) and 1/X (9%).